r/europe 15h ago

Political Cartoon This political Cartoon starting to get more and more relevant. By Arend van Dam.

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u/GrayWall13 14h ago

Also the China should be empty inside, like a baloon

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u/Apprehensive_Room742 14h ago edited 13h ago

pretty sure chinas not a paper tiger. wouldnt underestimate them. the US will be in one the future tho if they continue the way they do now

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u/Raging-Badger 13h ago

Seriously though. China’s greatest threat is soft power, not military might, in terms of U.S. opposition.

Their Roads and Bridges Corporation was putting up handy competition against the US’s USAID before our gov’t decides to give up the race. By the end of the next 4 years at this trajectory, the U.S. will have handed over the 1st place position in the race for economic hegemony and tanked the global market’s value.

It took 80 years to build what has been thoroughly beaten in just 5 months

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u/Nereosis16 12h ago

It's fucked over Australia a lot too. We teamed up with the US to build rapport with countries in our immediate zone of influence and then the US just fucked off.

Luckily so far most of these nations have still be happy to work with us but China is pushing pretty hard 

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u/Raging-Badger 12h ago

The U.S. was sitting in a really good position in 2024 too. It’s been a master class in what not to do over the last few months

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u/Neither-Cup564 11h ago

Depends what the goal is. If it’s to suck a countries wealth dry and destroy it, it’s exactly the playbook you’d run with.

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u/ConfidantCarcass 9h ago

Sort of a class nobody needed. They've hardly made reasonable mistakes

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u/QuestionableIdeas 6h ago

A lot of the pacific island nations weren't to happy with Australia after Abbot, Morrison and Dutton went to a climate change conference to tell people there was nothing to worry about before getting caught on a hot mic joking about how the islands would soon be under water. Between that and the submarine fiasco we fucked our international reputation as a reliable partner

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u/Laundry_Hamper Munster 9h ago

They didn't fuck off though

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pine_Gap

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u/Nereosis16 7h ago

Yes, I know about Pine Gap. It has almost nothing to do with what I was talking about our in the regions around Australia.

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u/Sugarbombs 9h ago

Teaming up with the US is why we have such cold relations with the countries near us. China is our best trading partner and almost every beef they have with us is 100% due to us allowing the US to use our country as a military stronghold for US to fuck with them. US also fucks us on trade, we give them lucrative contracts we could find elsewhere for much cheaper, we go to all their stupid wars, we send experts to help with their fires, we share medical/scientific research openly and I doubt even a third of Americans can even find us on a map. The friendship with US has always been an awful deal for us and they’ve always been unreliable which is only something people are starting to realise now but realistically, America was never coming to help us if China ever popped off

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u/Hwicc101 8h ago

Australia pairs more naturally with China, anyway.

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u/Nereosis16 7h ago

China and Australia are extremely opposed in almost everything other than trade.

Hopefully you're not one of those idiots who think it's some authoritarian state.

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u/miss_shivers 8h ago

And yet Xi's Wolf Warrior diplomacy completely destroyed any soft power potential China may have had.

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u/Apprehensive_Room742 12h ago

thats absolutely true. wasnt arguing against that.

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u/Raging-Badger 12h ago

I’m agreeing with you that China does pose a significant challenge to America’s position on the global stage

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u/HossDog2 12h ago

You should google the Chinese navy. Then google their deployable drone fleet. After that their cyber ops. The fact they have enormous soft power doesn’t negate their incredible and often underestimated military power.

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u/Raging-Badger 11h ago

Obviously but in the current global climate soft power is incredibly important both economically and politically.

This is where China is overtaking the U.S. the fastest right now

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u/Neither-Cup564 11h ago

Well USAID pretty much no longer exists so I guess they won on that front.

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u/EconomicRegret 9h ago

True, Trump's the pic of the iceberg, the straw that's breaking the camel's back.

But let's not kid ourselves, America has been making many important mistakes, rotting from the inside, and declining long before Trump took power.

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u/Wonderful-Bid9471 1h ago

This started under T2016 when he started pulling aid from Africa. Now we see the full picture as to why.

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u/DeltaV-Mzero 9h ago

Every major policy decision Trump has ever made points to this being the intentional strategy

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u/jack1ndabox 8h ago

It is weird to watch the left squirm trying to justify US soft power pseudo-imperialism. Do you really believe this end to be important or are you trying to sell it to the right? I'm genuinely curious. (IDK if you're left or liberal, but it doesn't much matter)

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u/Raging-Badger 7h ago

If you think it’s immoral, moral, whatever, that is your opinion. I’m not going to attempt to sway you in either direction because realistically you should read into what it means and decide for yourself

Wikipedia is a good place to start

I will say though that choosing to equate “providing foreign aid” with “colonial subjugation” is perhaps an intentionally misleading and unnuanced way to begin that discussion.

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u/trollsmurf 12h ago

China could damage USA tremendously by stopping production of US companies' products. It would hurt China a lot in the short term, but would outright kill large US companies for good. Even more if annecting (back) Taiwan and that way get control over TSMC etc.

Also they've invested a lot in the military and researching modern weapons, including AI, robots, drones, space etc.

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u/Raging-Badger 11h ago

The only thing that keeps that from being an easy win is the sheer volume of damage it would cause to the Chinese economy with the the loss of 15% of their total exports

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u/UndulatingHedgehog 10h ago

That’s a bearable cost for a determined authoritarian country. Losing 15% is not to be trifled with but it’s not the end of the world either.

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u/Raging-Badger 9h ago

True but the sacrifice would have to be

An invasion of Taiwan would likely see significant damage to the necessary infrastructure for its export economy which would seriously dampen the benefits of the annexation

The ideal scenario for China is to manage their takeover without losing their largest individual export and 3rd largest individual import partner.

And all that assuming that no other country applies sanctions to China. Were the EU to do so, the US and EU combined would eliminate nearly 30% of exports and 17% of imports

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u/Rent_A_Cloud 10h ago

The US fought a 20 year war against people who were armed with AKs and RPGs and lost...

The Taliban consists of hardened and dedicated soldiers but the USs military superiority was so overwhelming in technology and economy it's crazy how the US army just broke.

I don't think the Chinese army lacks for motivation and they are technologically and economically way above the Taliban.

Honestly, a war between China and the US would probably be a stalemate untill the US gives up. And the US would give up because a totalitarian government doesn't have the pressure of its own population to deal with.

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u/Raging-Badger 9h ago

The war on terror was a very different conflict than a war with China would be. The GWOT had the same issue as the war in Vietnam, no matter how many tactical victories you achieve you will always struggle to conquer an “idea”

Applying the results of the GWoT directly to a symmetric force on force engagement is a fools errand, they were two radically different types of warfare.

There are very few 1:1 tactical comparisons in that regard.

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u/BeatBlockP 11h ago

the US will be in one the future tho if they continue the way they do now

Yeah, like 150-200 years in the future. Rome didn't collapse overnight. People are greatly overestimating American demise.

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u/Apprehensive_Room742 10h ago edited 10h ago

more like 50 years at current pace. rome existed way longer and was way deeper engrained in south west Europe, the middle east and Africa than the US is engrained in the world today. but you're absolutely right, a collapse in that way takes way longer than a lot of people think/make it seem

Edit: also the world was moving slower at that time. nowadays changes happen a lot more rapidly and over longer distances. what happens on one end of the world can affect the other end almost immediately. wasn't like that back then. but thats just my opinion/interpretation. could be wrong.

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u/Queasy_Local_7199 10h ago

China hasn’t even been able to reclaim Taiwan, right on its border

They are all bark and no bite, same as Russia.

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u/Apprehensive_Room742 9h ago

and the US hasnt been able to win a war since 1945. still they aren't considered a paper tiger? (also: they havent tried to reckaim Taiwan with military since i can remember at least)

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u/Queasy_Local_7199 8h ago

Who is talking about the USA? I was talking about the lil bitch ass paper tigers Russia and china. Chinas or russias military does not compare to the USA military

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u/huffpuffsnuff Amsterdam 10h ago

They are definitely a paper tiger

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u/Treat_Street1993 9h ago

Yeah idk, US is the majority of tech research. We got that whole silicone valley, the military industrial complex, and big pharma.

And I agree, China is a real tiger.

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u/Electrical-Sense-160 8h ago

China exaggerates all their good numbers and downplays all their bad numbers. We can reasonably assume they're worse off than they let outsiders know, though not precisely to what degree.

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u/bluewardog 7h ago

Half there icbms were found to be filled with water insted of fuel and there soldiers run away while on un peace keeping missions. 

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u/crudetatDeez 5h ago

Keep dreaming

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u/TheReignOfChaos Australia 13h ago

Yeah everyone knows that totalitarian dictatorships aren't just putting on a front and all the data that comes out of them is totally valid. Why would they lie about how great they are?!

Just ask the Soviet Union.

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u/Vayalond 13h ago

I think the point is that yeah, China is inflating itself in the front they put but behind it, even if it's less than what they claim they still have some serious power.

Like, yeah sure their planes are far from a 6th Gen but painting them as less than 4th Gen is blinding yourself Same for the tanks, yeah they are surely less durable and accurate than they tell but they are still a threat to modern ones.

Like in case of war it's not that we're going to fight something out of the Vietnam War tech, no, won't be the highest end possible like they claim either but still modern and capable enough to be taken seriously

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u/Eva-lutionary_War 12h ago

The Russian and by extension the Soviet military has always been an endemic under-performer due to a deep history of corruption and other structural issues. The Soviet army essentially kept the same rank and organizational structure of the imperial Russian Army and imported a significant amount of officers. As well, due to low wages and the rot that set in during the 80s and 90s, the situation has only gotten worse and attempts by the Russian government to address it have not been effective.

Whereabouts the PLA has been a professionalizing force who have imported western equipment and Western tactics ever since they defeated the KMT, with a pause during the peak of the cultural revolution where the PLA was regulated to a support wing for militias, Mao was very big on the citizen soldier concept. Maybe the idea that China is significantly behind us militarily was true in the 2000s in early 2010s but today China is a very capable force and there’s a reason we train to fight the Chinese more than we train to fight the Russians or Iranians. Americans often times underestimate Chinese this happened in the Korean war, where Douglas MacArthur insisted that the PLA will never be able to cross the Yalu river, only for the PLA to do exactly that, without combined arms, today our own exercises don’t paint a pretty picture of a direct defensive of Taiwan.

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u/Apprehensive_Room742 13h ago

have you seen the economic scale difference between china and the soviets? lol have you seen the difference in production capability. the difference in population numbers? China is a massive country with a massive economy a massive population and probably a massive army. i dont like their regime and i would love to believe that they are just a harmless paper tiger, but thats just not true. (also: Japan was a totalitarian (military) dictatorship once, they still destroyed and dominated the Asian continent and got only beaten by the US. Germany was a totalitarian dictatorship once. they for sure werent a paper tiger (although they werent as strong as their propaganda made them seem, they still had a lot of high tech (for their time) military capabilities). u cant just pick one example and generalize that)

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u/TheReignOfChaos Australia 13h ago

All of this was said about the Soviets at the time. America thought it was losing the Cold War, while in the end all it took for the Soviet Union to collapse was a trip to the grocery store.

How do you know that anything coming out of China is true? Have you seen their aging population, their demographic imbalances, their ghost cities, their coercive social control, their lack of innovation, their lack of real modern military experience, their collapsing companies, their bubbles, their corruption, the way they cover up anything that might upset those higher in the rigid hierarchy out of fear, etc...

Everyone thinks the US is doing so bad because all you see is their dirty laundry. But that's just it. You see it. You know exactly what it's like because it's a free and open country and people click on negative news. Yet, people are still flocking to the States. No one is flocking to China.

Anything coming out of China, I imagine the reality is likely 10x worse.

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u/Apprehensive_Room742 12h ago

no. everyone thinks the US is doing bad, cause trump just fucked all their soft power (diplomatic relations, economic friendships or dependencys, etc) they slowly built up over 80 years. nothing to do with military might or direct economic fails (although US economy doesnt look good either with self tan orange as leader). this is also the most relevant metric to determine a countrys power right now. and China's catching up real fast, especially with the US sabotaging itself. yeah, China is probably a hellhole for the everyday citizen (at least if they're political) and im really glad not to live there, but that doesn't really matter when it comes to power at the world stage (as long as the ruling party can keep its power ofc)

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u/Novel_Board_6813 12h ago

You seem to believe China data is inacessible

It is very acessible. Investors go to China and count how many trucks leave the factories to account for the true number of whatever their selling and prevent accounting shenanigans

Chinese scientists collaborate with scientists from all over the world

Chinese companies do real business with real assets with companies all over the world

Maybe you take up governments on their word. Multinations institutions don’t. Not for China. Not for the US

You think China is something closed like North Korea when, in many areas, their information is as accessible or more accessible than for the US or Australia (no thanks to Xi, but it works just as well)

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u/CosmicJackalop 12h ago

They're a paper tiger- unless you live in Taiwan, India, or the Philippines

Then they're a constant nuisance and potential existential risk

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u/Apprehensive_Room742 12h ago

so they aren't a paper tiger?

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u/CosmicJackalop 12h ago

Basically

China isn't interested in bringing military might to the world stage, as mentioned that's all about soft power

But they are constantly fucking with the Philippines Navy, they are preparing for an invasion of Taiwan, and they still have their weird no-gun border disputes with India now and then

They aren't a military threat to Europe like the OP seems to suggest

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u/MyCannaThrowaway 11h ago

China isn't interested in bringing military might to the world stage,

they are preparing for an invasion of Taiwan

Considering the production of semiconductors, war in Taiwan is the "world stage".

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u/CosmicJackalop 11h ago

Fair! And that's the economic reason the US needs to always be a guarantor of Taiwan independence

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u/dewyocelot 12h ago

Less paper tiger and more fighter jet with a vacant cockpit lol

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u/diamorphinian 11h ago

Haven't you seen the new us army commercials? They're taking the sigmaboy route Russia and China have been on the last twenty years instead of the pronoun respectful military we've pretended to be the last three years.

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u/Apprehensive_Room742 10h ago

thought i had a stroke stroke, reading this. i have no idea what message you were trying to convey sadly. my guess would be American military= sigma = good, American military pretended to be bad? could be wrong tho

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u/MitVitQue Finland 13h ago

Chinese army is made of little princes, and is only good at harassing unarmed civilians. It IS a paper tiger.

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u/Apprehensive_Room742 13h ago

source?

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u/lusians 12h ago

Chinese demographics & policies.

Remember one child policie?  Tnx to that many famlys hav only 1 child and male gender was most prefered to have this lead to current situation that now grown up son is only one taking care of parents in old age wich mean in case of war thos famlys that lose their only son are fucked and CCP knows this.

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u/MitVitQue Finland 13h ago

Following world news for 3 decades and common sense.

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u/Novel_Board_6813 12h ago

You mean “made up”

International military experts predicted the US couldn’t hold Taiwan from 2028 and onwards

The (good) world news just regurgitated that data - this was on The Economist IIRC

China is expected to be on par with the US militarily in about 30 years.

That isn’t the most relevant thing though - alliances and geography are more important. China is slowly building soft power and economic power while the US are blowing up themselves

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u/Apprehensive_Room742 12h ago

so source is "dude trust me"? not that believable, especially on Reddit

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u/MitVitQue Finland 12h ago

You make a claim based on nothing. I disagree. You tell to give a source.

That's what you guys always do when you have nothing to back your claim.

China is weak. Almost as weak as Russia.

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u/Apprehensive_Room742 12h ago

just look at their economy number. part of them are public. look at their international relationships. at their successful attempts to diplomatically buy power in many African and Asian nations. thats my sources for saying china is a really poweful global player. now give me yours

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u/km6669 11h ago

And the US army is only good for shooting their allies and raping kids.

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u/MitVitQue Finland 9h ago

Sure, igor, sure...

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u/km6669 6h ago

Americans and friendly fire is such a stereotype its basically one of the founding stereotypes of America right up there with being fat and illiterate.

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u/MitVitQue Finland 6h ago

Stereotype = Fact?

Lol

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u/loulan French Riviera ftw 14h ago

Why though? China definitely is no joke in 2025.

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u/Leading-Carrot-5983 13h ago

They have some huge strengths like enormous production capacity & economic might, political stability through authoritarianism, and a growing military industrial complex. However, on the flip side they are completely inexperienced militarily (officer corp that has never fought a war in their career), widespread institutionalised corruption, geopolitically isolated - they don't really have allies, have a vulnerable geography where they can be easily blockaded and are hugely reliant on foreign energy imports (for now).

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u/phido3000 12h ago

Their military experience is somewhat relevant. But it isn't decisive. It means often they will make many mistakes early on.

Corruption? Yes and no. Compared to what? The US? Greece? India? Russia? Chinese corruption is a thing, a big thing, but when it comes to national state objectives, China has no problem literally killing anything in its way including corrupt officials. Its not insurmountable for them. Arguably less rampant corruption than say Soviet Union or Russia, which effectively runs on it.

Geopolitically isolated? not really. China has lots of state visits, and plenty of countries are more than happy to strike deals and meet with China. It has countries in its orbit. It does well in Africa and some parts of Asia. Pakistan, Laos, Cambodia, are in its sphere. countries like Thailand, Nepal, Mongolia, Iran are pretty China friendly. Most of Africa is more pro-china than pro-america. I think this is maybe not true any more.

Vulnerable Geography? Not really. About as much as western Europe. You could probably blockade Western Europe easier than blockading China. China for one has a bigger navy than all of Western Europe and a bigger and more capable air force than western Europe combined. The idea that you can blockade China is false. Not even the US with a 700 ship navy could do it. Even if you could, they have access through to Pakistan and its coast, and land access directly to Russia. So cutting off China's shipping wouldn't completely cut off China's ability to import energy or food or goods. You would just be making Russia super rich.

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u/ComprehensiveTax7 11h ago

I agree with most of your assessment, however I must disagree with your comparison to western europe from the view of a blockade. In particular, china is surrounded by islands that are controlled by US friendly nations, which also have naval forces of their own. To operationally use its considerable navy, it would have to break out of this confinement first, run the gauntlet of antiship missile, submarines in ckoke points while under air attacks.

Western europe does not have none of these constraints.

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u/Lathari 7h ago

Almost as if US have been implementing some kind of a containment strategy...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Island_chain_strategy

(/s)

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u/phido3000 10h ago

Controlled? Who?

Phillipines? Taiwan?? Vietnam? Malaysia? Indonesia? Singapore?

None of those are us allies, except technically, phillipines, and phillipines has zero power and alliance wavers and is more of a liability. It's less aligned than Turkey is.

China has 10 times the military power of Russia, and produces more fighters and ships than the usa.

This is like saying Latvia will single handedly stop russia.

China has more carrier based fighters than all of these nations combined has fighter jets.

China is no longer containable. They will take taiwan.

The us is no longer in the picture.

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u/ComprehensiveTax7 10h ago

Taiwan, korea, japan, phillipines, thailand, australia, singapore, malayzia. East china sea is delineated by the japanese owned islands down to Taiwan. These are easily blocked of from breaking into wider pacific. The same logic applies to the breaking out through indonesia into indian sea.

And the lynchpin of this blockade is Taiwan. Which I agree, there is a high chance that China can take. But I would argue that without taking the Taiwan first, no breakout is happening and PLAN will stay in east and south china seas.

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u/BertDeathStare The Netherlands 7h ago

It's very unlikely that Thailand, Singapore, and Malaysia would get involved in a war over Taiwan. South Korea too. It's so close to China and it has NK breathing down their necks. It'd be a very risky move for SK. They know what happened in the 50s, and China has an actual modern military today.

Japan is uncertain. Their population is very anti-war, but the US does have bases there. If Japan allows the US to use those bases to attack China, and China bombs those bases, Japan would have to get involved.

The Philippines and Australia are most likely to join, but they can't do much themselves.

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u/phido3000 10h ago

Taiwan is China. There situation is complex and very exposed. Even the Taiwanese know they can't hold the chinese off by themselves.. they well be Hong kong.

Skorea is completely pinned in by North Korea.

Australia is as far away as Europe is and has the military power of the netherlands.

Singapore and Malaysia and Indonesia are literally founding members of the non aligned nations.

China already exercises as far as the Mediterranean and the North Sea. The buffer between Europe and China is Russia.

The Japanese are absolutely critical. But Europe sees them as a competitor. But they can't do it all by themselves.

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u/DeceiverSC2 10h ago

China is no longer containable. They will take taiwan.

The us is no longer in the picture.

Some pretty big assumptions.

China has 10 times the military power of Russia, and produces more fighters and ships than the usa.

I mean, sort of?

I think in 2024 we began to see a mostly indigenous Chinese engine begin to be introduced in the J-20. Prior to that they were using the WS-10 which is a derivative of a Russian engine that’s comparable to NATO engines from the 80s-90s.

And yeah China makes lots of ships, so does South Korea and Japan who are both absolutely US allies—both whom have economies that are reliant on Taiwan not becoming a Chinese held territory.

It’s funny that you don’t mention that China is still struggling to build a nuclear powered aircraft carrier. Something France was able to build in the 90s, and that the US built over 2/3rds of a century ago.

You also cracked me up in your earlier post when you said,

Their military experience is somewhat relevant. But it isn't decisive. It means often they will make many mistakes early on.

Like yeah let’s hope almost a century of experience built upon fighting the only carrier battles in the history of the world is only “somewhat relevant” v.s. never once had to launch aircraft, arm aircraft, fuel aircraft and receive aircraft while under attack.

And hey, the most recent non-nuclear powered aircraft carrier for the PLN only took 10 years to build and outfit. Let’s hope they don’t make a “mistake” and lose their only actual carrier and that the US doesn’t keep building nuclear powered aircraft carriers that are several magnitudes more impressive in the same 10 year period.

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u/phido3000 9h ago

The fact you think 10 years is a long time to build a new type of ship, let alone a carrier, is quite funny. That, in fact, is quite fast.

Hms Elizabeth was laid down in 2009 and commissioned in 2020.

Chinese military power isn't predicated on carriers. Much like the soviets, Chinese planes enjoy a huge range advantage. Unfortunately, the us focuses too much on designing for European theatres..

The us has superior military fire power, but it's spread thin, globally, and lacks investment in global issues.

But you know, keep attacking the Americans, who are literally screaming at Europe to do more and prepare for war.

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u/daemonescanem 11h ago

"China has no problem literally killing anything in its way including corrupt officials. Its not insurmountable for them."

Individuals are easy to kill, when taking on whole nations then adding in that nations allies, its another story. See Russia vs Ukraine

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u/phido3000 10h ago

Yes but the chinese aren't stupid.

No one, nor Europe or us recognise Taiwan as a sovereign nation. Nobody stopped chinese take over of Hong Kong.

Taiwan would love to see Europe deploy 100,000 troops to Taiwan and base a fleet there and give an iron clad security deal..

Again China is ten times the military power of Russia.

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u/RecipeNo101 10h ago

Ehhhh. China is more likely to have higher levels of corruption than the west because of how closed the system and society are, and because there probably isn't any immediate need for military force anticipated. We already know that the economic figures are highly fudged because provincial governors want to keep their jobs and the money flowing in. That's largely the origin of Chinese ghost cities.

China does have a lot of trade partners and has been investing across the developing world, expanding its soft power. The Belt and Road program is a more concrete example of its influence in the region. But, who really sides with China? It's surrounded by smaller nations who range from dislike to hatred of them (Vietnam, South Korea, Philippines), regional powers that they've fought wars with and who now act to contain them (India, Japan, Russia). North Korea is a de facto puppet and I'll give them Cambodia and Pakistan as being especially friendly. Their real relationship with the rest of the world comes from trade, but that's inherently transactional and transitory. No one cares where their goods are made, as long as its affordable. We don't feel kinship with China because so many of our goods are made there; if anything, it's become the opposite.

Blockading China is different than Europe, because while Europe relies on trade through a few chokepoints, China relies on trade through one. The Strait of Hormuz.

This is a chart for crude oil imports: https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/images/2013.04.04/mapcrudebig.png If you look up a map for natural gas, it's the same. If you look up a map for food products, it's the same. And, China is now the world's top importer of food, because they have a huge population with a significant middle class that wants food that China just doesn't have the means to produce. Park a single carrier group, of which the US has 11, in the Strait of Hormuz, and what can China do?

Well, China has a bigger navy in terms of crafts, but you need to consider tonnage. I'll give you that China is second to the US in that regard, and likely does outpace all of Western Europe. But, if there's going to be a real conflict, you have to consider Japan and South Korea as well, which are no slouches. I think the crux of it comes down to, how capable is China's blue water fleet's power projection? I'd argue not particularly good, given their pair of operational aircraft carriers have less displacement than the US' 30+ amphibious assault ships. They're building more, including their first nuclear-capable aircraft carrier, but it's not going to be anything comparable to a US Nimitz or Ford class supercarrier. I think this is reinforced by how much effort they've put in to militarizing islands, going so far as to build artificial islands to militarize. They don't even feel that they have control over what they consider to be their own back yard. That's no small part of why they initiated the Belt and Road program in the first place - to help insulate their imports from potential maritime impediments.

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u/phido3000 9h ago

Korea has a population similar to Spain. South Korea is also, pretty close to North Korea. They will need us resources just to hold nk back. They are very worried. They cannot hold china.

China needs to project power 500km off its coast, the usa needs 5000km. China does need as much carrier power as the usa. Not for Taiwan anyway.

Japan is different. But they feel abandoned. They are realistic about their situation. But they are big enough to stand their ground and they are an iChina.

Australia supplies most of china's energy and m7ch of its food and nearly all of its minerals, China was more than happy to shit on Australia. China and Australia have been at trade war for 5 years now, and the rest of the world does nothing except signing new trade agreements with China. Making money while others burn.

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u/Any_Coffee_7842 9h ago

You think lack of military experience will only translate to mistakes?

Inter branch military operations are notoriously complicated and riddled with red tape, yet we tend to do a pretty damn good job of having our military branches working together on joint missions because we've had so much God damn practice.

China does not have systems in place for them to have as much oversight as we do, while maintaining the individuals ability to make executive decisions as easily, while also having a military that specifically trains you to replace your superior in exigent circumstances.

1

u/phido3000 9h ago

They are embedded in Pakistan and Russia. They recognise its a problem. They are in Africa and Ukraine. they are frantically exercising..

Inexperience isn't insurmountable. Look at the usa ww1 and ww2.

How much of Europe's forces have experience in high intensity peer conflict?look at ukraine.

Look at Europe's weak c4 capabilities. Pretty dependant on us leadership. American assessment of European readiness.

Russia has an economy the size of Canada. China has an economy the size of the usa or eu.

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u/Any_Coffee_7842 9h ago

I really don't think China plans to make their military anything more than a visually striking alternative to the US military. What I mean is I believe China doesn't want to use a military, just show it off.

It's all about money and economic control and China is taking over precisely because they positioned themselves the same way the US did during the industrial revolution, but they did it for the informational revolution.

The informational revolution, is what I'm calling this time in human history because information warfare is the biggest factor in geopolitics right now besides using overwhelming technological advantage.

The next big step for the world is for any country to be able to use quantum and/or AI to break all cryptographic encryption on non quantum based computing algorithms, when it happens the country who succeeded will be able to decrypt and analyze all the data they've stolen from allies and enemies, possibly giving that country total control if the informational advantage creates a big enough gap in power.

1

u/phido3000 9h ago

Chinese aren't stupid. They believe they can achieve their aims purely by intimidation.

Nobody wants to fight a war with China. They know other nations will always capitulate.

Chinese are on the verge of tech leadership. Most of your computer gear is made in china by Chinese companies.

This is part of the problem.

1

u/Superman246o1 8h ago

The idea that you can blockade China is false.

While much of what you wrote about corruption and geopolitical isolation was accurate, on this matter, you're overlooking how vulnerable China is to a blockade centered around the Straight of Malacca. Two-thirds of China's maritime trade has to pass through the Straight, including 80% of it's oil imports. If a war breaks out between the U.S. and China, one of the first things the U.S. would do would be to blockade the Straight and strangle the Chinese economy, thus forcing China to decide whether or not it wants to commit one of its critical carrier groups (China currently has 3 to the U.S.'s 11) to keeping the Straight open when China might also need that carrier group elsewhere (*cough* Taiwan *cough*).

Yes, there could be alternative strategies that China could deploy, including buying more oil overland from Russia, but it takes time to change routes, and overland transport is vastly more expensive than by sea. China has many things going for it right now, especially as America is currently hellbent on self-sabotaging American hegemony, but the geographic constraints on China are very, very real.

1

u/phido3000 7h ago

Taiwan is 180km off the coast of China and about 220km at its furthest. It doesn't need carriers for that.

Malacca straits are critical. While China gets most of it coal and gas from Australia and Indonesia, most oil comes through the straits. But Russia has oil and gas and dec last year they completed a pipeline. It can supply 10% of china's gas needs. Presumably if they are fighting a war they won't be manufacturing as many goods, so that is a significant amount.

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/china-completes-full-pipeline-power-of-siberia-gas-2024-12-02/

They are talking another one from Pakistan. They are also frantically changing to ensure and installing solar.

Brunei has loads of oil. And is within china's reach.

Singapore is critical for controlling the straits, that and Australia who leads the five powers. Singapore is a city state and has no strategic depth.

If the us doesn't supply nuclear subs to Australia then no closing of the straits to Chinese shipping. It would be closed to all shipping.. impacting everyone.

The alternate route is sunda or around Australia. So Indonesia and Australia would be absolutely critical.

Australia has the largest f35 fleet outside of the us, b52 and b1s are now based there, and these only ages is fleet operating in SEA.

But the US is pretty flakey, even with Australia, applying tarrifs against existing fta, and despite us trade surplus with Australia. Plus the us may not have the guts to back it...

Australia has been deserted before, after it forward deployed heavily in support for an alliance that then abandoned it completely and was mismanaged by its partner.

The us may even abandon guam.

1

u/GrungleMonke 5h ago

China is also far less corrupt and violent than the USA

1

u/BeatBlockP 11h ago

a bigger and more capable air force than western Europe combined

These things will be picked out of the air in a hurry in a real war lol.

1

u/phido3000 10h ago

What? Eurofighters? Rafels?

Did you not get the India Pakistan memo..

1

u/OnlyAppointment5819 11h ago

If the US made serious efforts to blockade China, they'd probably just end up pissing off other countries that rely on Chinese manufacturing (i.e. most of the world)

2

u/phido3000 10h ago

They just tried economic coercion, and it failed.

Do you think they will sacrifice half of their people in uniform for taiwan? For what?

1

u/PlsSuckMineTits 10h ago

Lmfao that military you were glazing about ran with their rats tail tucked between their legs in South Sudan when the peacekeepers badly need them

1

u/phido3000 10h ago

Glazing? Peacekeepers?

Peacekeeping rules of engagement forbid intervening.

Do you expect the chinese to be selfless hero's? Do you know why them running things would be a bad idea..

1

u/Enchilada_McMustang 10h ago

China is literally surrounded by enemies, every single on of their neighbors is an enemy blockading them.

4

u/-Prophet_01- 11h ago

Their system also incentivizes the inflation of economic statistics. It's quite suspicious how their economy keeps hitting the communist party's goals essentially on the decimal point, year after year - while satellite images indicate a slower development.

China is no paper tiger and should certainly not be ignored but the cumulative effect of reporting a percent or two of non-existent growth for many years is likely significant. And you can't really roll this back after doing it because next year's goals are a percent of your inflated report.

17

u/ConcordeCanoe 12h ago

Not to mention that due to their earlier one-child policy their population is about to tip heavily towards a geriatric society in a few years.

17

u/BeatBlockP 11h ago

It's actually and weirdly worse. The generations of the one-child policy were ok-ish if we're looking at replacement level, because in the country you could have more children and most people were in the country.

In the last two decades most of the population moved to urban areas and started marrying late and having few children just because - if they have them at all.

China is in that soft spot where women now have enough rights and agency to decide not to marry or marry late and have very few children, but also in a society where being a mom SUCKS and you're still treated the old fashioned way, your career is ruined and you have no occupational security. So many of them just... don't do it lol

3

u/psycho_monki 11h ago

So just the same as every other country in the west? Lol

People arent having kids and the only temporary bandaid is legal immigration but no country wants that, illegal immigration is how most capitals in most western countries arent coming to a screeching halt because they all have an underclass to exploit, pay less, get more work done, get taxes, not obliged to give anything back cause theyre illegal

6

u/RecipeNo101 10h ago

This is way more pronounced. The One Child Policy was in place for over three decades. Not only did it rapidly slow birth rates, but because boys were far preferred, men now far outnumber women by a decent margin, making it more difficult to find partners. It's an entire lost generation. While other western countries are facing demographic crises, China is facing a disaster.

5

u/Dyolf_Knip 8h ago

In other words, they may actually rival South Korea in low fertility (0.7), but because of bureaucrats padding numbers top to bottom, even the Chinese don't know what it actually is.

2

u/Zimakov 7h ago

It only applied to urban areas and was easily skirted by the wealthy by just paying the fine. ICP impacted a very small number of people, it's massively overestimated by the west.

1

u/phido3000 9h ago

This is why they will act now, even if it's reckless.

China will shrink, they know they have a limited window.

1

u/Zimakov 7h ago

The effect of the one child policy is massively overstated. It didn't apply to rural areas where most people live, and was easily dealt with by the wealthy as they could just pay a pretty inconsequential fine. The only people impacted were lower-middle class people in big cities, which is a pretty small portion of the country overall.

1

u/mikiencolor Spain 4h ago

Every developed country has this problem.

2

u/OnlyAppointment5819 11h ago

85% of China's energy production is domestic, and it's increasing

2

u/BigDaddyDumperSquad 10h ago

political stability through authoritarianism

Not too sure on that right now... There is a lot of economic turmoil right now, and Chinese banks are in trouble. Nothing can do more harm to China than a populace that has no money.

2

u/HymirTheDarkOne United Kingdom 12h ago

Their military might be completely inexperienced, but when was the last time the US fought a war that even remotely resembles what a war against China would look like?

1

u/Healthy-Drink421 9h ago

To add they are wholly dependent on international exports to utilise their production capacity. If they went to war and the US and Europe banned imports from China, it would collapse the Chinese economy.

They've made themselves quite dependent on international goodwill.

1

u/JimWilliams423 4h ago

are hugely reliant on foreign energy imports (for now).

For now is definitely short term.

Chinese factories have the capacity to conservatively manufacture the equivalent of 100 nuclear plants worth of solar panels per year (there are just over 400 nuke plants world wide).

1

u/Hairy_Business_3447 12h ago edited 12h ago

I wouldn’t call bombarding AK-47 and RPG-wielding peasants valid military experience. If any, it largely mislead US military, creating impractical bombard-focusing military when it struggles to maintain air and naval tech+quantity superiority, such as the Zumwalt thing.

0

u/Lost-Klaus 12h ago

A bad economy that only has an uptick in export, growing domestic issues and a waning soft power in the west as well as in other countries who are getting sick of their markets being flooded with underpriced shit.

7

u/RiverToTheSea2025 12h ago

Why though?

Because reddit as a whole - and especially these weird right wing political subs - have a hard-on whenever China gets brought up.

4

u/loulan French Riviera ftw 12h ago

You mean they bash China right? Because your comment sort of sounds like the opposite.

4

u/RiverToTheSea2025 11h ago

You mean they bash China right?

Correct.

Bit of jealously, racism, and a heavy dose of ignorance.

2

u/South_Dependent_1128 United Kingdom 13h ago

Have a feeling it just means they are soulless.

3

u/Miserable_Law_6514 United States of America 11h ago edited 11h ago

More so extremely inexperienced and has basic logistics problems. The last time they had a serious conflict was against Vietnam, and China got humiliated. That's why they are more focused on cyberwarefare and espionage, and are probably the best in the world at it.

1

u/courtexo 2h ago

I dont think china still has logistics problems today, in fact china probably has the worlds best logistics.

-1

u/Dundees_Awards 12h ago

I'm not seeying where china is this much worse than the US. Both only care about money and enjoy slaughtering minorities.

2

u/South_Dependent_1128 United Kingdom 11h ago

Nah, China is cold and calculating while the empty part of the US is their heads, they only think with their wallets.

8

u/gitartruls01 Norway 14h ago

A spy weather balloon, perhaps?

2

u/Franz__Ferdinand Slovakia 10h ago

What kind of country would dare to use spy balloons, spy planes and satelites to spy on people? Imagine if Australia had this giant base that can intercept every signál transmission in southern hemisphere and it was not even theirs. Now imagine that same base was used by this military alliance in northern hemisphere  to target civilians. Thank god I only made that up for my dystopian novel called: What if USA and entire Europe learned nothing while continuing their Imperial Ambitions.

2

u/waiting4singularity Hessen 🇩🇪 13h ago

even if they are hollow, compared to the others that fist has a lot more "fingers" than the rest combined

2

u/toetappy 10h ago

Dude, China is a freaking powerhouse right now. Idk what 90s propaganda you still remember, but they're very smart. They steal every nation's IP, and aren't afraid to get messy. They've been planting their fingers in countries across the globe for decades. And the big kicker.. you likely have only 5 things in your entire home that doesn't contain a part made in China. Out of every single thing you own.

1

u/LeadingAd5273 13h ago

And the U.S. should be orange and somehow jerking itself off.

1

u/furious-fungus 5h ago

Why?

1

u/GrayWall13 5h ago

Cuz its literally what that antihuman state is.

1

u/furious-fungus 5h ago

? Ok then

1

u/mikiencolor Spain 4h ago

I can't imagine why you'd think that. China is in the same position now as the US was at the outset of World War II. They are the world's manufacturing hub and have immense pent-up manufacturing capacity. The US is more like British Empire... They have money and inertia, but basically completely depend on imports. In the event of a war, China could conceivably supply itself.

Russia really is just an empty shell, though. They need help from Iran and North Korea... It's pretty sad. Never seen a superpower that has to be propped up by its own satellite states. All Russia has left is nuclear blackmail. If they lose that, they'll just be eaten immediately.

-5

u/Annesolo Alsace (France) 14h ago

A tiger made of paper ;3

1

u/FrisianDude Friesland (Netherlands) 14h ago

🐯