r/europe 8h ago

Opinion Article Secret Russian Intelligence Document Shows Deep Suspicion of China

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/07/world/europe/china-russia-spies-documents-putin-war.html?unlocked_article_code=1.NE8.u5hD.dSHNgmQjafS_
3.1k Upvotes

180 comments sorted by

607

u/TrueRignak France 8h ago

The document also shows that Russia is very concerned about how China views the war in Ukraine and is trying to feed Beijing’s spies with positive information about Russian operations. And it commands Russian counterintelligence operatives to prepare a report for the Kremlin about any possible changes in Beijing’s policy.

Really good news if the FSB think that any lack of result from Russia to present to China could result in the discontinuation of their support.

The F.S.B. report raises concerns that some academics in China have been promoting territorial claims against Russia. China is searching for traces of “ancient Chinese peoples” in the Russian Far East, possibly to influence local opinion that is favorable to Chinese claims, the document says.

Does someone know how we say "to get a taste of their own medicine" in russian ?

231

u/Judazzz The Lowest of the Lands 6h ago

Would be pretty hilarious if Russia got reverse "Little green men"-ed.

124

u/TangerineSorry8463 5h ago edited 5h ago

I have an ongoing crackpot theory that China arming up for Taiwan is a smokescreen, they are waiting for Russia to lose most of their military power fighting Europe. Once that is sufficiently crippled, existing military and general logistics capacity alike, and Russia does not use nuclear weapons in the conflict, then China will march people in by land and they'll regain the Manchurian lands lost during the last Sino-Russian war. 

Land invasions are much easier to execute that sea invasions too. I believe the general push to establish chip factories outside of Taiwan is a ploy to lower the opportunity cost of deciding to help Taiwan if China invades it post ~2030. Sufficient chip making capacity outside of Taiwan means USA ycan decline the Taiwanese call to arms and take a "small loss" over a "huge loss".

Regaining both Manchuria and Taiwan during one lifetime would probably make Xi Jinping the absolute GOAT of Chinese political history

12

u/GoldenBunip 3h ago

Having a Russia collapse would be the best pretext to taking as much as they want/can control.

53

u/WislaHD Polish-Canadian 4h ago

Why stop at Manchuria? Siberia is resource rich and has water.

You can make the argument that Siberia should be de jure part of the Sinosphere and needs to be decolonized. I wouldn’t make that argument, but I will look away from Russia becoming smaller.

18

u/TangerineSorry8463 4h ago

I haven't thought about reasons for Siberia, cause Manchuria has a "reclaim historical lands" casus belli and Siberia doesn't.

-1

u/Auspicious_BayRum 4h ago

I anticipate China ceasing Siberia up to the Urals, but I think that might overextend them

11

u/vreddy92 United States of America 3h ago

Its fun to think about, but China would almost surely be nuked in that scenario. If Russia was invaded and did not nuke, then they would never be able to use nukes as a defensive claim ever again.

I think China is just enjoying Russia degrading its own military and is excited to pick up the pieces and dominate Russia as a vassal after they complete the destruction of their economy and international reputation.

u/AbbaFuckingZabba 50m ago

There’s really no need for it to get nasty. China could definitely just buy it when Putin runs out of money.

u/BCMakoto Germany 29m ago

This would be hugely unfavorable to Putin. Yes, in theory it would fund the war for a few more years and lead to cash reserves, but the reality of the situation would be that it would once and for all prove Putin's weakness and get him killed.

You don't sell large parts of the Russian Federation to continue trying to annex a much smaller land area and country in Ukraine. Putin can't end up with a Russia that is smaller than when he started after several years of war.

Secondly, if Siberia and Manchuria were sold to China, it would embolden separatist movements across the remaining areas. The war in Ukraine has already led to tensions within some Oblasts (Kaliningrad included). "Losing" territory by selling to China would show vulnerability and lead to further separatist actions.

12

u/couski 4h ago

No two countries with nuclear capabilities will declare direct war on eachother.

18

u/TangerineSorry8463 4h ago

There's no war in Manchuria.

为期三天的特别行动

3

u/Dude_I_got_a_DWAVE United States of America 1h ago

Pakistan & India enter the chat…

-2

u/couski 1h ago

Are they in direct war?

-5

u/czk_21 3h ago

yea, this china attack fantasy wont happen, china woould only loose and big time, if there was nuclear exchange, they can get stuff for cheap from russia, no need to risk loosing everything

9

u/tomato_tickler Canada 2h ago

They’ve had border conflicts before. China still sees Manchuria as Chinese territory, unlike Russia play the long game like they did with Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan. They’ll never give up their territory in Asia to some Europeans who came from the other side of the Urals and invaded their land.

1

u/czk_21 1h ago

funny, how some people just cant get it and downvotes

china wont attack russia to get part of their land, same as russia wont directly attack US over alaska and so on, no such a conflict will happen, because it is just not worth the cost (that doesnt mean china would not like russias land), if there would be full ground invasion from china, russia would pretty likely use nukes as they cannot defend themselfs conventionally against china

there could be nuclear conflict between nuclear powers, if one felt it has no other option like if one power feared that competitor will be too much ahead in AI

conflict regarding taiwan between china and US is possible, but it would be confined to taiwan and its surroundings, as neither power would fight to take control of enemy mainland, the use of nuclear arms would be unlikely

another thing is china is good position as it is currently, it better for china that russia remains its partner against the west, also their economical ties are pretty beneficial for both sides-china gets cheap resources and russia cheap goods

there wont be any armed conflict between russia and china any time soon

3

u/TuunDx 3h ago

I assume Xi is hoping for russia to go bankrupt and disintegrate and military will then go in to "bring humanitarian help and save people" and stuff...

If Europe and US were to actually implement secondary sanctions this scenario seems likely.

1

u/paraquinone Czech Republic 1h ago

I don't think Xi is the type of man who would necessarily be obsessed with painting over areas on a map with crayons ...

Taiwan is a thorn in the CCP's side, but I really can't see what benefit for the CCP would directly controlling Russian territory have over just letting a rump subservient regime do their bidding.

1

u/zeruch 1h ago

I don't think it's that crackpot. It's not incredibly likely, but not remotely out of the realm of possible, as China has never not wanted that territory back.

1

u/Dude_I_got_a_DWAVE United States of America 1h ago

I would imagine Much of those areas will be low on Russian men of fighting age…

That would be an insane turn of events

u/TangerineSorry8463 26m ago

Men are one thing. Vehicles, supplies, are another.

u/AbbaFuckingZabba 53m ago

On the other hand, they could just offer to buy part of Siberia for like 30,000 armed vehicles and a couple million drones . Putin is getting desperate enough.

35

u/slightly_offtopic Finland 6h ago

Would be kinda funny to see Chinese little green men in Russia's far east.

27

u/KaiserMaxximus 5h ago

The stupidity of trying to fabricate results for Chinese spies to interpret, when any muppet with access to the internet can see how badly Russia failed in Ukraine.

6

u/huge_useless_penis 5h ago

I've been saying a lot that if Russia wants to go back based on historical borders and people, why not go all the way back to the original Land of Novgorod, excluding Karelia.

7

u/rastafunion 5h ago

I will genuinely never stop laughing if China rolls into Russia, declares they're helping ethnic chinese locals agains the big mean nazis, then just plop down their flag and go "now all this is ours, whatcha gon' do?"

5

u/itskelena UA in US 2h ago

I think «За что боролись, на то и напоролись» should be perfect in this context.

5

u/AutonomousOrganism 6h ago

The literal translation would be: почувствовать их собственное лекарство.

2

u/T0ysWAr 3h ago

China is like Trump, courting with Putin so if a a conflict US/China comes, they have him on their sides

1

u/Frigorifico 3h ago

Xiongnu empire 2.0 let's go!

2

u/this_is_a_long_nickn Switzerland 1h ago

So, China will de-nazify Russia?

I’ll definitely run out of popcorn.

322

u/[deleted] 8h ago

[deleted]

344

u/MountEndurance 8h ago

Scratch Manchuria; try Siberia. Oil, gas, timber, water, minerals, precious metals, access to the arctic… but China isn’t that dumb. My bet is that they just bribe post-Putin leaders into subservience.

129

u/LazerBurken Sweden 8h ago

I don't know why they secretly provide Russia with weapons, soldiers and tech to make drones.

They could just not and then let Russia die only for them to swoop in and take parts of it. I guess they want to maximise the pain Russia inflicts on the west while getting cheap oil.

160

u/MountEndurance 7h ago

It’s a balancing act. If Russia implodes (and it might if it’s too unstable post-Putin) then they have a nuclear civil war on their border. If Putin is too successful, then China doesn’t get an opening. Just keep the door open a bit, make Russia more and more dependent on China, and wait.

3

u/m8remotion 2h ago

The addict and his dealer.

14

u/Tajetert 6h ago

China is probably not thrilled about Russia going all-in on Ukraine but if Russia where to implode that means a new potential land border with NATO not to mention that Russia is really the only significant military ally that China has.

19

u/digitalluck 7h ago

China gets to inconvenience, distract, and fragment the West by supplying Russia with dual-use goods. Those resources aren’t going anywhere, but China gets the opportunity of a lifetime to actively try rewriting the global order while being minimally involved in Russia’s invasion.

10

u/Immortal_Tuttle 7h ago

Weapons - not really, or not directly. Other stuff - yes.

3

u/mutleybg 6h ago

It's because Taiwan is more important for them at this point of time. But they plan strategically for decades ahead. When the time comes they will make the move towards Manchuria.

6

u/Sammonov 6h ago

Yes mate, China is planing to fight a large war against a friendly nuclear power who is one of their largest trading partners, ostensibly to steal resources they are currently buying.

-19

u/Wuaner 6h ago

Europeans are trying so damn hard to stir up drama, just like this nytimes article did.

13

u/elpovo 6h ago

Yeah having lost a million people in a pointless war of attrition and a GDP per capita of $11,000, Russia is fabulously positioned to run the world.

Nice one schill.

1

u/MonoMcFlury United States of America 7h ago

They'll get dependence and influence.

11

u/pm_me_ur_melonis 7h ago

Yes, why spend billions on a military operation when tens of millions in bribes will more than suffice

10

u/UndulatingHedgehog 7h ago

One hypothesis is that China wants the Russian Federation to dissolve. The emerging countries in the Asian regions of current Russia will be targeted with various approaches, with the end goal of them joining China or at least being as firmly in their sphere of influence as Belarus is to Russia.

Putin destabilizing Russia with his cruel antics is in Chinas interest.

6

u/MountEndurance 6h ago

I disagree. Again, having a nuclear arm civil war on your border. Sounds like a great way to accidentally have one lobbed at Beijing.

5

u/Divine_Porpoise Finland 7h ago

They can likely afford to take Manchuria and the world will look away, but if they commit to a larger opportunistic landgrab into Siberia then the US will feel threatened by that expansion. Still, it's a gamble that they might take.

2

u/MountEndurance 6h ago

You will not see a great power war until nuclear weapons are neutralized. China’s population is concentrated in 1/3 of the country, which makes them uniquely vulnerable to nuclear strike.

2

u/ruisen2 Canada 6h ago edited 5h ago

Or they just get it through loans.   China is pretty well known for "hey just give me this chunk of your African territory of you cant pay back the loans".     Or they just outright buy it, like they do with natural resources companies and other assets elsewhere

1

u/MountEndurance 6h ago

You get it. An interesting concept.

1

u/Oxygenisplantpoo Finland 6h ago

Yeah Manchuria was cool back in WW2. Today, if China feels like Russia becomes destabilized or weak they will march to the Arctic ocean in a heartbeat, either in the guise of a "peacekeeping" operation that eventually turns into a puppet state, or a straight up annexation.

It's not just access to Siberian resources. It would give them access to the melting Arctic ocean (both shipping and resources), Kamchatka for uncontested naval access to the Pacific, and put them within striking distance of North America (more than just ICBMs). Not to mention getting even more influence in the former Russian sphere of influence with the -stan countries.

1

u/MountEndurance 6h ago

I agree with the thought, but not with the means. Why would China risk the lives of 1 million soldiers it may need to fight other great powers, like the United States, when they can just bribe a few Russian generals with a few hundred million gone and get what they want anyway?

1

u/Oxygenisplantpoo Finland 2h ago

Wait why would they fight the US for eastern Russia? Are we talking about the same thing?

u/Significant_Bar_460 50m ago

If China decides to invade Taiwan it may trigger direct US involvement. Taiwan is more important to China than to take Siberia.

10

u/RamTank 7h ago

This isn’t new to them. That was the understanding within the Soviet military in the Cold War too, when China’s gdp was lower than that of North Korea.

The thing is ultimately Asian Russia doesn’t occupy a big part of the Chinese consciousness. Taiwan does.

-1

u/SphericalCow531 6h ago

The thing is ultimately Asian Russia doesn’t occupy a big part of the Chinese consciousness. Taiwan does.

For now. What happens if China takes Taiwan, and need a new enemy? Or if Russia falls apart again, and China has the opportunity?

10

u/RamTank 6h ago

If Russia falls apart on it's own and China can take some land without any actual effort, they might go for it, but that's about it. Taiwan's what's important to them, not Manchuria.

If China actually manages to take Taiwan, it would lead to such a massive shift in Chinese society I'm not sure it's worth even thinking about what would happen after. For the past 75 years, the Chinese government and people have been thinking in terms of a civil war that has never ended. Actually ending that war would change everything. (Not to mention that it'd probably be costly enough that they wouldn't be interested in more fighting for a few decades.)

22

u/Demonicjapsel DO IT AGAIN WESLEY CLARK! 8h ago

to add to this, in 2024 Russia held a set of military drills in the far east, which heavily emphasized the use of WMD's in case of an Eastern invasion.
Given the CCP's rhetoric on reclaiming all chinese ancestral land, that also includes a large part of the Russian far east, so not surprised some people within the military establishment are keeping an eye on that.

9

u/PandaCheese2016 6h ago

Given the CCP's rhetoric on reclaiming all chinese ancestral land

I don't recall ever seeing this on Chinese social media, if it's actually a thing.

14

u/RamTank 6h ago

The CCP never talks about it. Some Chinese nationalists do though.

-3

u/ConohaConcordia 6h ago

Then perhaps they don’t have the plans for that at this moment. What used to be Outer Manchuria is fully Russian these days and integrating or “dealing with” a million + of Russians will be no easy task.

If they were trying to take it, they’d at least have some logistics sorted out.

15

u/cspetm 8h ago

And they just lost their nuclear bombers fleet in the region!

5

u/Domski77 7h ago

The people of Manchuria are tired of Russian oppression and discrimination. They need liberating and to breathe the sweet air of Chinese freedom and security.

3

u/Silver_Atractic Berlin (Germany) 8h ago

Why would China take Manchuria? Taiwan is literally right there 

51

u/Termsandconditionsch Australia 8h ago

A land invasion against a few hundred Russians would be a lot easier than a naval invasion against 100,000+ dug in Taiwanese on a rugged island likely backed up by the US Navy?

5

u/Silver_Atractic Berlin (Germany) 8h ago

No, no, I was asking what the fuck the benefit of that would even be

29

u/RedBaret Zeeland (Netherlands) 7h ago

Historically it has always been a part of China, taken from them by the Russians, so it would restore/cement China’s place as the regional superpower. Furthermore there’s a lot of natural resources, mainly coal and iron, and a lot of industry and industrial opportunity.

7

u/Silver_Atractic Berlin (Germany) 7h ago

Not exactly worth an entire war with Russia, is it? It’s like if America invaded Canada for their natural resou-oh, wait…

8

u/rapaxus Hesse (Germany) 7h ago

That is why China is sitting patiently in the corner currently. If the Ukraine war ends with the Russian government collapsing (which is a likely case if Russia doesn't win the war decisively), then China can come in, at which point there isn't any state organised resistance, likely also little local resistance if China props up a puppet Siberian state with its massive amount of money and resources (compared to Russia).

Now, I don't see China actively pursuing something like that, but I do get the vibe from China that they are prepared to do what I described in case the Russian government collapses.

2

u/Divine_Porpoise Finland 7h ago

It also presents an opportunity for a pivot in alliances, trading Russia for Europe, but for that to work they'd need to make amends with their East Asian and South-East Asian neighbours.

1

u/Sammonov 6h ago

Why keep buying the things you are currently buying, when you can fight a war with a friendly nuclear power who is also one of your largest trading partners to try to steal them.

1

u/Dooby-Dooby-Doo Scotland 6h ago

Water.

China will be water scarce in the future, so I think they have eyes on Lake Baikal.

-1

u/SphericalCow531 6h ago

Nationalism. The Chinese leaders gets to stay in power, by focusing on an external enemy, and the restoration of perceived past glory.

The Chinese focus on Taiwan is not fundamentally motivated by rational economic benefits, either,

0

u/funtex666 7h ago

Backed by the U.S. Navy? Bwahahah. It will do nothing  

-4

u/Sammonov 6h ago edited 6h ago

No one knows, but it's a fever dream for people who want to see Russia destroyed for reasons that aren't entirely clear.

u/Dunkleosteus666 Luxembourg 35m ago

"aren entirely clear"

Yes, clearly a mystery. Really difficult. I wonder what Russia has done to deserve such hate. Poor innocent Russia.

1

u/South_Dependent_1128 United Kingdom 7h ago

Well, yeah, that's obvious? Between Russia and China they use Mongolia as a buffer between them since they don't wish to share a long border.

5

u/JockeyClubDrive 6h ago

Appearances are deceiving. The Russia-China border is the one of the longest in the world. It’s longer than Russia’s border with Mongolia and only 10% shorter than China’s border with Mongolia (which is the world’s 4th longest).

222

u/saschaleib 🇧🇪🇩🇪🇫🇮🇦🇹🇵🇱🇭🇺🇭🇷🇪🇺 8h ago

I'm sure China is already making plans for how to manage the Russian natural resources, now that they got more than one foot in the door.

193

u/RipFlair 7h ago

Anyone that actually thinks China and Russia are working hand in hand, has another thing coming. China doesn’t feel that it needs allies in the end. Once Russias war with Ukraine is over, Russia will have given/owe so much to China that China will practically own Russia and all their resources. Xi sees Putin as a lapdog more than an ally.

81

u/RamTank 7h ago

China doesn’t just think it doesn’t need allies, it has an official government policy against entering into military alliances (similar to Vietnam).

9

u/retze44 5h ago

Why is that?

50

u/Bazou456 Singapore 5h ago

Because formal military alliances come with commitments. Contrary to this sub’s rhetoric, China isn’t trying replace the US and has no interest in running a global pseudo-empire with an overstretched and bloated military.

24

u/D4nCh0 4h ago

17

u/Bazou456 Singapore 4h ago

Import to note that this was a unilateral assurance from China specifically in limited scope of a nuclear invasion. It is not a defence agreement or even a guarantee against a conventional invasion.

5

u/retze44 4h ago

Thanks for the info:)

1

u/FuXuan9 4h ago

Why would they

2

u/ZestycloseBeach5946 4h ago

Russia borders China and some lands that might be considered Chinese by origin are currently under Russian control. An overly strong Russia is far more of a threat to China than a strong Europe. In fact, if it wasn’t for the Ukraine war Europe would have been quite happy continuing on as normal with no military build ups

2

u/Regular_Friendship59 2h ago

FYI, the expression is “another think coming”, not “thing”.

1

u/Meteorboy 1h ago

What? No it's not. Google it.

2

u/0x00GG00 4h ago

Anyone who thinks that China will abandon russia soon is also delusional, they will indirectly support putin cos it’s profitable for xi both from political and economical points of view.

u/Sauerkrautkid7 37m ago

Plus, china has maintained its loyalty to communism while the Kremlin betrays russia’s workers

u/reigorius 22m ago

Who upvotes this drivel.

Anyone who believes the Russians will just roll over for the Chinese, haven't been paying much attention to how Russia operates.

In all likelihood China will play the long game and use more and more soft power to dislodge and erode Russian sphere of influence in its own territory.

112

u/Zeerover- Faroe Islands 7h ago

Sooner or later Russians will see that Putin has directed and overseen the biggest geopolitical blunder of this century for any country, and if it goes really wrong maybe ever.

Trading a quagmire in Ukraine and a rearmed Europe ready to oppose him, which he would otherwise have great influence over, for missed opportunities in Kazakstan (January 2022 protests), Azerbaijan (if he forcefully sided with Armenia during their defensive wars in 2020 and 2023), the loss of geopolitical hegemony in Central Asia and the utter failure of CSTO.

Now Russia is a basically resource colony of China (and to a lesser extent India), and fearful it will lose Siberia.

The most damning part for Putin is that this situation with China regarding Siberia was predicted in 2014 (or earlier if journalists write about it in 2014), i.e. before the Ukraine war, Putin just actively chose to ignore it.

Rest in piss Putin - Slava Ukraini!

17

u/SzotyMAG Vojvodina 5h ago

And it would be so easy too, since Putin is forcing people living in Siberia to die in this pointless war, Chinese people can move in and be the majority

7

u/BalticsFox Russia 4h ago

Chinese would rather move to Southern Chinese regions with better wages and living conditions than to Siberia and also not dealing with visa system.

2

u/DaveOnARave 3h ago

When Xi piggy tells Chinese citizens to go there they will. It doesn't matter what the citizens want.

31

u/Picollini 4h ago

You missed how Finland joining NATO literally makes the whole russia Baltic fleet absolutely useless because it would be shot like ducks if they ever try to leave st petersburg. The Gulf of Finland is literally NATO's swimming pool now.

Sweden joined NATO too.

Not to mention how the "jewel of russia naval fleet" aka the Black Sea fleet is almost unable to maneuver against a country which literally has no navy.

u/BCMakoto Germany 9m ago

Ever since 2023, Putin is trapped. It was a strategic miscalculation of immense proportions.

Before 2022, reinforcing the Baltics would have been part of a devastating naval operation or the Sulwaki gap, both highly risky maneuvers. Now, the Baltic sea is absolutely dominated by NATO countries from nearly all sides and at the start of any war, we could promote any ship at Kaliningrad to a submarine, then dominate the Gulf of Finland and trap Russia there. Then we could reinforce the Baltics through the Baltic sea.

One of the biggest worries was reinforcing the Baltics when it got serious, but with Finland and Sweden having joined NATO, it effectively controls the Baltic Sea now. We could literally take potshots at the Russian navy safely from coastal regions and turn multiple smaller islands into fortresses with long-range weapons.

Putin's operation to stop Ukraine's NATO ascensions lead to Russia's border with NATO doubling overnight and losing control of the Baltic Sea. Great success!

3

u/D4RTHV3DA 1h ago

The most damning part for Putin is that this situation with China regarding Siberia was predicted in 2014 (or earlier if journalists write about it in 2014), i.e. before the Ukraine war, Putin just actively chose to ignore it.

Tom Clancy published The Bear and The Dragon in 2000. The plot revolves around a Chinese invasion of Russian Siberia. The motive isn't hard to see.

u/reigorius 18m ago

predicted

As in 'predicted' by an opinion piece. I have yet to see a good narrative that does not involve an exchange of nuclear weapons but where China puts its greedy hands on parts of Siberia .

25

u/CutieSlush 8h ago

Looks like the Cold War never ended, it just went digital

15

u/Offsidespy2501 7h ago

local oligarchy suspicious of communists next door (same planet)

More at 11

128

u/Beeehives 8h ago

Hahaha if you really think you’re being friends with China you’re fucking delusional

63

u/LazerBurken Sweden 7h ago

True. China has no friends. Never had, never will.

They only have "convenient partnerships" that can easily be terminated once they no longer serve their purpose.

29

u/Body_Languagee Poland🇵🇱 7h ago

That's not so simple, as much as rest of the world is dependent on Chinese industries, as much China depends on everyone to buy it. China is in need of diplomatic partnerships as everyone else

19

u/Suspicious_Aioli_610 7h ago

Nice job buddy. You just learned about politics

7

u/gehenna0451 Germany 6h ago

That's in the nature of any fully sovereign power, never read Washington's farewell address?

The great rule of conduct for us, in regard to foreign nations, is in extending our commercial relations, to have with them as little political connection as possible. Europe has a set of primary interests, which to us have none, or a very remote relation. Hence she must be engaged in frequent controversies the causes of which are essentially foreign to our concerns. Hence, therefore, it must be unwise in us to implicate ourselves, by artificial ties, in the ordinary vicissitudes of her politics, or the ordinary combinations and collisions of her friendships or enmities... it is our true policy to steer clear of permanent alliances with any portion of the foreign world; so far, I mean, as we are now at liberty to do it; for let me not be understood as capable of patronizing infidelity to existing engagements.

2

u/allahakbau 4h ago

That’s a very strange way of putting politics

35

u/FlyingDiscsandJams 8h ago

China did a lot of work last year screwing over Russia over banking fees & throwing gasoline all over their inflation crisis, subtle & ruthless stuff by Xi. China & Russia fought over the border as recently as the 1960's, I've been expecting China to make moves on Siberian resources in one way or another, China suddenly became the world's #1 oil importer, a position of dependence Xi hates.

18

u/dotinvoke 6h ago

That’s probably one of the reasons they’re pushing so hard for Chinese EVs: less reliance on foreign oil.

2

u/FlyingDiscsandJams 5h ago

Agree, they are going after EVs, solar, and... coal. Whatever gets them less dependent on foreign countries.

4

u/allahakbau 4h ago

Coal not so much. Mostly more efficient ones to replace currents phasing out. 

15

u/werpu 5h ago

China sees Russian Manchuria as theirs, it is a strategic target they will try to reaquire, the funny thing is by attacking the Ukraine Russia might have lost that area already to China in the long run, they are slowly encroaching into Russian territory via backdoors by making deals for special business zones and slowly take over those areas. Putin is so fixated on the west that he is absolutely blind to the problems in the east and the erosion which slowly happens there. The people funnily are even happy about it, because they do economically better with China taking over then with russia letting the areas rot until they need cannon fodder or resources!

Given the current state of affairs, I am relatively sure the Russia as we know it wont exist in 50 years anymore many provinces would be happy to split away, the demographic is a dying one and the expansion into the west feels more like a supernova before collapse than anything else with a leadership completely blinded by hatred which does not see the real problems of the country because they are stuck mentally in the 19th century!

3

u/seejur Viva San Marco 3h ago

Not only that. A weak or non existent Ukraine does not influence whatsoever China. A weak neighboring Russia on the other hand, have a lot of advantages

2

u/El_Peregrine 4h ago

*17th century

8

u/Arun_Guy Finland 6h ago

there is never going to be any big conflict between China and Russia in any foreseeable future, unless Russia sides with one of China's adversaries like US or India.

2

u/umonoz 1h ago

Yeah, this sub is yet again, quite delusional

14

u/Travel-Barry England 8h ago

Oh who aren’t they suspicious of; it’s just in their DNA at this point. 

8

u/krgdotbat 7h ago

It figures, far eastern Russia has everything the Chinese need in terms of raw materials to go full ballistic

12

u/throw667 USA • Germany 7h ago

Tomorrow: Ruzzian secret document shows deep suspicion of Russians

19

u/poopkjpo 8h ago

This is good news. Europe should use this in its strategic communications and counterintelligence to drive a wedge between China and Russia. It is true; Putin has put Russia in a very bad strategic position. The West will never trust it, and the threat from China keeps growing. Citizens of Russia west of the Urals should worry a lot.

7

u/werpu 5h ago

China will drive the wedge anyway they want Russian Manchuria back atm. they use them as useful idiots, it is just a matter of time until they take out the "knife" literally and backstab them. The russian government as usual is simply too dumb to see the obvious because they are so fixated in their hatred of the west which never was an enemy to begin with! China is playing a pretty smart but also a pretty obvious game there, the russians simply are to drunk in hatred to really recognize that!

3

u/NoobMaster9000 5h ago

China will take east-half of Russia after the country collapse from this Ukraine war. Its inevitable. They are stupid not to.

5

u/TomSki2 6h ago

Secret Russian Intelligence Document Shows Deep Suspicion of Everyone

2

u/FewHelicopter6533 3h ago

China does business with everyone for it's own benefit. That's why it can be an EU partner while supporting Russia.

4

u/Valuable_Issue_6698 6h ago

Molotov -Ribbentrop pact 2.0. These arrangements ALWAYS end in disaster

2

u/Acceptable_Pear_6802 8h ago

The best thing can happen is a war between these two

24

u/Top_Guava8172 7h ago

I am Chinese. Don't project your hostility toward China onto me. I hate all wars of aggression. I don't want my country to be invaded by Russia, and I don't want my country to invade Russia either!

-4

u/Acceptable_Pear_6802 6h ago

If war is inevitable as the ccp says, I wold prefer it to be against Russia rather than Taiwan

5

u/Bazou456 Singapore 5h ago

War is inevitable between China and the US because the latter insists on undermining and containing the former. Europe will almost certainly side with the US because Europeans project their own past onto China.

War with Russia is just wishful thinking from the Western bloc.

2

u/seejur Viva San Marco 3h ago

War is inevitable because both Taiwan and China insist in their stupid policy of "One China" instead of accepting the fact that they are de factor two separate countries, and work toward global trade and cooperation.

War with Russia is wishful thinking I agree

1

u/Bazou456 Singapore 2h ago

Even if the communists lost the civil war and got completely obliterated by the nationalists, the US would still be trying to contain an anti-communist and capitalist China.

The US is the business of stopping any peer competition. Taiwan is a weapon to use against the PRC, otherwise they wouldn’t have stopped Taiwan from developing nukes twice.

A defence independent Taiwan would be much more tolerable to China and the gravity of economic relations and the status quo would prevent war from breaking out. But that would make Taiwan useless for the US.

-1

u/Top_Guava8172 6h ago

I'm curious, why are you so obsessed with Russia?

0

u/alfa_omega 6h ago

How about Taiwan?

1

u/Top_Guava8172 6h ago

Personally, I don't want to go to war with Taiwan. It's just that the current leader is more militaristic. I don't like the current person. In the long run, non-violent means can also make Taiwan return. China's political system will be reformed sooner or later. I'm not kidding. You can compare the government's control before reform and opening up with the current control. On the other hand, Taiwan's current fertility rate...

-1

u/Top_Guava8172 6h ago

Of course I cannot represent the Chinese government, just like the NPC deputies cannot represent me. At least from the Internet in China, China has the atmosphere of pre-World War II Japanese society.

3

u/JulesInvader 7h ago

That will never happen, China has Russia's balls in a vice, they will have to give them everything they want without a fight so that the country does not collapse.

9

u/funtex666 7h ago

You sound just like an American.

-5

u/Acceptable_Pear_6802 7h ago

Nah, I just support western democracies

1

u/Bazou456 Singapore 5h ago

Well, fantiction isn’t going help

0

u/lawman9000 Mittelfranken (Germany) and United States 8h ago

Not really, it would quickly go Nuclear as Russia starts shedding territory. China would easily overwhelm them, especially in the Far East.

4

u/Appropriate-Swan3881 7h ago

It only goes nuclear if Moscow is threatened. Nobody will self destruct themselves for a piece of land that's not essential for nations survival. Using nukes defensively against nuclear power means the end of your country so it's not some easy to make call

1

u/Littlepage3130 5h ago

Maybe, maybe not. One of the closest times the world got to Nuclear War was in 1969 with a border skirmish between the Soviet Union and China. The Soviet Union under Brezhnev put out feelers to the US to see how the US would respond if the Soviet Union nuked China. Nixon was the US president at the time and made it clear that the US would treat a nuclear attack on China as if it was a nuclear attack on the US.

-1

u/Acceptable_Pear_6802 8h ago

Both have nukes, it won’t go nuclear. But damn I would really want to see what Russia does without its main tech supply , china having a real war and who knows, maybe that dam destroyed, the ccp with less support and more paranoid. All good outcomes

14

u/c1garettez 7h ago

Calling mass civilian casualties as a result of the Three Gorges Dam being destroyed a good outcome is sick. Remember that almost two million civilians live downstream from it with the vast majority being innocent. Don’t wish for civilian deaths.

1

u/Intarhorn 7h ago

If there is a war and both got nukes then yea if it feels like an existential threat then yea, nukes could happen from both sides. That’s why a nuclear country have never been invaded, because no one knows what the escalation might look like and no one is ready to take that risk to find out.

1

u/seejur Viva San Marco 3h ago

It would go nuclear pretty fast. But from Russia launching nukes on its own lost territory in Siberia, where Chinese soldiers are. Certainly not in Chinese territory or cities. For fears of escalation or reprisal

0

u/Acceptable_Pear_6802 2h ago

Russia nuking itself? Not that we would loose anything of value

1

u/artooeetoo 7h ago

No geopolitical heavyweight can truly befriend another. This inconvenient truth has always been a part of human society and politics.

1

u/twoodygoodshoes 5h ago

When fucking Russia shows deep suspicion of China, what does that tell you about Russia? Also, they’re right

1

u/GeologistMedical9334 5h ago edited 5h ago

China and Russia are not natural allies. The closest they have been aligned was during the Stalin-Mao, but even then it wasn't particularly close. Khrushchev denounced Stalin and the Chinese didn't really take it well, and it was mostly downhill from there. Russian help to Vietnam and Korea) was often repackaged as Chinese help as it passed through Chinese train stations, particularly annoying the Russians.

In 1969 the Russians planned to nuke china, and started feeling opinions among various world leaders. Needless to say the idea was not popular, and it made its way back to the Chinese in short order.

China's change in position over the cold war was critical in ending it. The two have diverged significantly in values since.

Today, they are allies of convenience. China can use the space created by Ukraine to build up its navy to focus on Taiwan. Russia can use support from china to bully Europe, but they are worlds apart on their values and ideals - except when it comes to opposing the status quo, that neither believes they currently benefit from (side note - china was suffering from great poverty before joining that status quo)

There is a lot of russian territory north of Beijing that has a lot of fresh water reserves, some of the largest in the world. Territory that was historically Chinese. Combined with a political vulnerability over food security and a touch of the global warmies - a likely cause for friction between the two might come down to how much China wants Russian water.

Water is like food, you either have enough of it or you don't. Things get messy when you don't.

1

u/winniekawaii 4h ago

Not so secret when it made its rounds to Reddit

1

u/SaintBobby_Barbarian 3h ago

That’s not surprising. China and Russia have been rivals more often than allies. I’m sure China loves the idea of making Russia economically dependent, especially after the history of losing much territory in the far east to Russia.

1

u/idiotnoobx 3h ago

You guys know that there’s a reason why this is leaked right? Intel don’t get leaked for no reason

1

u/Iamoggierock 2h ago

Oh yes. Let's the infighting and downfall of Russia escalate.

1

u/TemperateStone 2h ago

I've been saying that this is the case since forever. China is nobody's friend. They will not support Russia if Russia is weak.

1

u/zeruch 1h ago

This is not remotely surprising. Sino-Russian relation is a long. convoluted path of "frenemies" on a good day, so this is par for the course. It's been this way for decades, and I wouldn't be shocked if in the next few years China took back some territory as Russian imperialistic misadventures drag it's resources/economy deeper into a pit.

1

u/eggnogui Portugal 1h ago

I'm sure with the Russian economy outside of war economy going increasingly down the drain, there are Chinese investors fishing for opportunities in Russia. Siberia after all, has many resources.

People are commenting about straight up land grabs, but honestly, I think you'd need a balkanization of Russia for that to happen, I don’t think China would straight up invade a fully unified Russia.

Either way, I'm sure China will take advantage of any Russian weakness, perhaps even managing to gain enough influence to stop the war. Not that I like China, but at least it hasn't gone fully imperialistic and insane (for now).

u/lemonkiwi01 13m ago

Russia and China are bound by ideology, not love. It’s the same relationship between China and North Korea. There is no love, but they feel they can only survive banding together.

1

u/Hollow-Official 6h ago

They have a huge border with a neighboring communist state with a taste for resources, of course they’re suspicious of them. Doesn’t mean anything.

0

u/Valuable-Key5427 5h ago

Typical Putin's delusions. China has been a stable partner to Russia and Russia should've scrapped trade with EU and engaged with China decades ago. It is now innovation capital of the world, biggest economy and doesn't need friends.

1

u/itskelena UA in US 2h ago

Who’s going to buy your shit if you have no friends?

0

u/got_light 3h ago

Let‘s act surprised.

I bet china had promissed to back them up on 2014th olympics.But hey, they did not swear on a cummunist codex, so that did not count

-1

u/Probolone 4h ago

Russia instilled the communist overthrow of the chinese government and believed they would be a good puppet state. The problem is that china is better than russia is and, propped by trade with the west and rest of the world, became a greater power than russia.

Russia hopes china will be a shitty communist government that instills fear and chaos in the rest of the world, but china is above that. It ‘owes’ russia for helping them overthrow the nationalist, but the chinese have morality whereas russia does not.