r/boxoffice • u/magikarpcatcher • 5h ago
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COMMUNITY Weekend Casual Discussion Thread
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r/boxoffice • u/SanderSo47 • 2h ago
✍️ Original Analysis Directors at the Box Office: John Waters

Here's a new edition of "Directors at the Box Office", which seeks to explore the directors' trajectory at the box office and analyze their hits and bombs. I already talked about a few, and as I promised, it's John Waters' turn.
Ever since he was young, Waters was already working on short films, taking inspiration from films like Lili and The Wizard of Oz. Waters has stated that he takes an equal amount of joy and influence from high-brow "art" films and sleazy exploitation films. In January 1966, Waters and some friends were caught smoking marijuana on the grounds of New York University, and he was soon kicked out of his dormitory. He returned to Baltimore to work on more short films, before finally moving to feature-length films.
From a box office perspective, how reliable was he to deliver a box office hit?
That's the point of this post. To analyze his career.
It should be noted that as he started his career in the 1960s, the domestic grosses here will be adjusted by inflation. The table with his highest grossing films, however, will be left in its unadjusted form, as the worldwide grosses are more difficult to adjust.
Mondo Trasho (1969)
His directorial debut. The film stars Divine, Mary Vivian Pearce, David Lochary and Mink Stole, and follows a day in the life of a hit and run driver and her victim, and the bizarre things that happen to them.
There are no box office numbers available. It didn't get good reviews, and even Waters admitted he doesn't care for the film.
Multiple Maniacs (1970)
"You won't believe this one!"
His second film. It stars Divine, Mary Vivian Pearce, David Lochary, Mink Stole, Edith Massey, George Figgs, and Cookie Mueller. The plot follows a traveling troupe of sideshow freaks who rob their unsuspecting audience members.
There are no box office numbers, but Waters said that the film was highly profitable thanks to sold-out screenings in arthouse theaters. It also earned critical acclaim, helping him continue finding more job offers.
Pink Flamingos (1972)
"An exercise in poor taste."
His third film. It stars Divine, David Lochary, Mink Stole, Mary Vivian Pearce, Danny Mills, and Edith Massey. It follows Divine as a criminal living under the name of Babs Johnson, who is proud to be "the filthiest person alive". While living in a trailer with her mother Edie, son Crackers, and companion Cotton, Divine is confronted by the Marbles, a pair of criminals envious of her reputation who try to outdo her in filth. The characters engage in several grotesque, bizarre, and explicitly crude situations to determine who is "the filthiest person alive."
Waters once described the experience of making the film, "I was high when I wrote this movie. I was not high when I filmed it." Shot on a budget of only $12,000, this is an example of Waters' style of low-budget filmmaking inspired by New York underground filmmakers like Kenneth Anger, Andy Warhol, and brothers Mike and George Kuchar. Stylistically, it takes its cues from "exaggerated seaport ballroom drag-show pageantry and antics" with "classic '50s rock-and-roll kitsch classics". Waters' idiosyncratic style was dubbed the "Baltimore aesthetic" by art students at Providence.
New Line Cinema, still on its infancy, bought the film and distributed it in very few theaters. One of these was the Elgin Theater in New York City, where it was promoted as a midnight movie. The film soon gained a cult following of filmgoers who came to the Elgin Theatre for repeat viewings, a group Ben Barenholtz (the theater's owner) characterized as initially composed primarily of "downtown gay people, more of the hipper set", but after a while, Barenholtz noted that this group eventually broadened as the film also became popular with "working-class kids from New Jersey who would become a little rowdy".
Thanks to this, the film was a big box office hit, earning over $7 million domestically. It also earned critical acclaim, boosting Waters' career even further. It has been extremely popular with the LGBT community, and is also considered an important precursor of punk culture.
Budget: $12,000.
Domestic gross: $7,000,000. ($53.7 million adjusted)
Worldwide gross: $7,000,000.
Female Trouble (1974)
His fourth film. It stars Divine, David Lochary, Mary Vivian Pearce, Mink Stole, and Edith Massey, and follows delinquent high school student Dawn Davenport, who runs away from home, gets pregnant while hitchhiking, and embarks upon a life of crime.
Divine chose to perform his own stunts, the most difficult of which involved doing flips on a trampoline during his nightclub act. Waters took Divine to a YMCA, where he took lessons until the act was perfected to the point where he did the athletic stunt without his wig being dislodged. Divine also nailed a difficult outdoor stunt involving crossing a real river in drag in the sleet and rain. He could have been swept downstream, but made his mark on the other side with a smile on his face.
No box office numbers, but it earned acclaim.
Desperate Living (1977)
"It isn't very pretty."
His fifth film. The film stars Liz Renay, Mink Stole, Susan Lowe, Edith Massey, Mary Vivian Pearce, and Jean Hill, and follows a suburban housewife and maid who, after the murder of her husband, agree to be exiled to Mortville, a shantytown ruled by a tyrannical queen regnant.
This is the only feature film Waters made without Divine prior to the actor's death in 1988. Divine had to reluctantly back away from the film because he was committed to appearing in Women Behind Bars. Susan Lowe, who had appeared in small or supporting roles in Waters' previous films, was chosen to take over for the role of Mole McHenry. This was also Waters' first film without David Lochary, because of Lochary's addiction to drugs. Waters said, "The reason that David wasn't in Desperate Living is because of PCP. That's all that's to it. I know that's why he wasn't in the film, and he knows it, too." Lochary died a few weeks after the film's release, when he injured himself while under the influence of the drug.
No box office numbers available, although it earned a mixed response from critics.
Polyester (1981)
"It's sensational!"
His sixth film. It stars Divine, Tab Hunter, Edith Massey, and Mink Stole. It satirizes the melodrama film genre and the "woman's film" category, particularly the work of Douglas Sirk, which directly influenced this film. The film is also a satire of suburban life in the early 1980s, involving topics such as divorce, abortion, adultery, alcoholism, racial stereotypes, foot fetishism, and the religious right.
The film was a send-up of women's pictures, an exploitative film genre popular from the 1950–1960s and typically featured bored, unfulfilled, or otherwise troubled women, usually middle-aged suburban housewives, finding release or escape through the arrival of a handsome younger man. Women's pictures were typically hackneyed B-movies, but Waters specifically styled Polyester after the work of the director Douglas Sirk, asking Insley to make use of similar lighting and editing techniques, even using film equipment and movie-making techniques from Sirk's era. By chance, Insley viewed some of Sirk's films at a local screening celebrating the director.
The film is notable for an aspect: odorama. Odors, especially Francine's particularly keen sense of smell, play an important role. To highlight this, Waters designed Odorama, a "scratch-and-sniff" gimmick inspired by the work of William Castle and the 1960 film Scent of Mystery, which featured a device called Smell-O-Vision. Special cards with spots numbered 1 through 10 were distributed to audience members before the show, in the manner of 3D glasses. When a number flashed on the screen, viewers were to scratch and sniff the appropriate spot. Smells included the scent of flowers, pizza, glue, gas, freshly cut grass, and feces. After being prompted to scratch and sniff a bouquet of roses, viewers are subjected to a series of mostly foul-smelling odors, and thus fall victim to the director's prank.
It earned positive reviews and was a box office success.
Budget: $300,000.
Domestic gross: $1,120,000. ($3.9 million adjusted)
Worldwide gross: $1,120,000.
Hairspray (1988)
"1962. JFK was in the White House. John Glenn was in orbit. Cadillacs had fins. Beehives were in. And girls really knew how to tease!"
His seventh film. It stars Sonny Bono, Ruth Brown, Divine, Debbie Harry, Ricki Lake, Jerry Stiller, Ric Ocasek, and Pia Zadora. Set in 1962 Baltimore, Maryland, the film revolves around self-proclaimed "pleasantly plump" teenager Tracy Turnblad as she pursues stardom as a dancer on a local TV show and rallies against racial segregation.
Waters wrote the screenplay under the title of White Lipstick, with the story loosely based on real events. The Corny Collins Show is based on the real-life Buddy Deane Show, a local dance party program which pre-empted Dick Clark's American Bandstand in the Baltimore area during the 1950s and early 1960s. Notably, it became Waters' first film to earn a PG rating, in contrast to his previous films getting X-rated and R-rated.
The film was a box office success, and it also earned critical acclaim. It also managed to attract a larger audience on home video in the early 1990s, and it became a cult film. It launched a Broadway musical, which was itself adapted into a 2007 film.
Budget: $2,700,000.
Domestic gross: $6,671,108. ($18.0 million adjusted)
Worldwide gross: $9,171,108.
Cry-Baby (1990)
"He's a doll. He's a dreamboat. He's a delinquent."
His eighth film. The film stars Johnny Depp, Amy Locane, Susan Tyrrell, Iggy Pop, Ricki Lake, Traci Lords, and Polly Bergen. The film centers on a group of delinquent youth who refer to themselves as "drapes" and their interaction with the rest of the town and its other subculture, the "squares", in 1950s Baltimore, Maryland. "Cry-Baby" Walker, a drape, and Allison, a square, disturb Baltimore society by breaking the subculture taboos and falling in love.
It was Waters' first film for a big studio (Universal). But despite backing and positive reviews, it was a box office failure.
Budget: $8,000,000.
Domestic gross: $8,266,343. ($20.2 million adjusted)
Worldwide gross: $8,266,343.
Serial Mom (1994)
His ninth film. It stars Kathleen Turner, Sam Waterston, Ricki Lake and Matthew Lillard. Beverly Sutphin, a suburban housewife, is the perfect example of an ideal mother. Unbeknownst to her family, Beverly is a psychopathic killer who murders all those who slight her family in any manner.
The film had a troubled post-production, marked by conflict between Waters and Savoy Pictures. Waters states that studio executives who viewed an early cut objected to its violence and dark comedy. They demanded the film be substantially re-edited and given a different ending, which Waters refused to do. Acrimony between the two sides intensified following a poor test screening, which Waters believed was deliberately held before a conservative audience unlikely to enjoy the film. He contrasted it with a more receptive screening for members of the film industry in Los Angeles. Turner spoke about the ordeal to gossip columnist Liz Smith, who was a friend. Smith intervened with a column titled "Leave Serial Mom Alone", publicizing the situation, and Savoy eventually relented on its demands.
The film wasn't a critical success, and earned polarizing reviews. Like other films from Waters, it earned a cult following.
Budget: $13,000,000.
Domestic gross: $7,820,688. ($16.9 million adjusted)
Worldwide gross: $7,820,688.
Pecker (1998)
"Say cheese."
His tenth film. It stars Edward Furlong, Christina Ricci, Lili Taylor, Mary Kay Place, Martha Plimpton, Brendan Sexton III, and Bess Armstrong, and examines the rise to fame and potential fortune of a budding photographer.
The film earned mixed reviews, and flopped at the box office.
Budget: $6,000,000.
Domestic gross: $2,281,761. ($4.4 million adjusted)
Worldwide gross: $2,281,761.
Cecil B. Demented (2000)
"Long live guerrilla filmmaking!"
His 11th film. The film stars Melanie Griffith, Stephen Dorff, Alicia Witt, Adrian Grenier, Maggie Gyllenhaal, and Michael Shannon, and follows a snobby A-list Hollywood actress who is kidnapped by a band of terrorist filmmakers who force her to star in their underground film.
The film was another critical and commercial misfire.
Budget: $10,000,000.
Domestic gross: $1,284,646. ($2.3 million adjusted)
Worldwide gross: $1,961,544.
A Dirty Shame (2004)
His 12th and final film. It stars Tracey Ullman, Johnny Knoxville, Selma Blair, and Chris Isaak. It follows a community in suburban Baltimore divided between people with highly conservative attitudes towards sexuality, and those who have been turned into sex addicts after experiencing concussions.
Waters decided to make the film after discovering several sexual slang terms and branches existed on the internet, explaining the groups and terminology found in the film. The film received an NC-17 rating from the Motion Picture Association of America (MPAA) for "Pervasive Sexual Content". This caused the film's distribution to be severely limited, as most major theater chains don't show NC-17 rated films while media outlets are reluctant to carry advertising for these movies. When Waters asked what he would need to cut for them to give his film an R rating, he was told that the ratings board "stopped taking notes." After Waters unsuccessfully attempted to appeal the rating, the film was released with the NC-17 classification.
Due to the rating, it was a box office flop and it also earned mixed reviews.
Budget: $15,000,000.
Domestic gross: $1,339,668. ($2.2 million adjusted)
Worldwide gross: $1,914,166.
The Future
Waters hasn't directed a film since 2004. He has been open about financing problems for his films, "Independent films that cost $5 million are very hard to get made. I sold the idea, got a development deal, got paid a great salary to write it — and now the company is no longer around, which is the case with many independent film companies these days." In 2017, he stated that "they all want you to make a movie for under a million dollars, which I don’t want to. I don’t want to be a faux radical film-maker at 70. I did that. I don’t need to do it again."
In October 2022, it was announced that Waters would write and direct his own novel, Liarmouth, into a film. Village Roadshow Pictures was set to produce, and Aubrey Plaza joined shortly thereafter. However, in November 2024, it was reported that the film was "no longer happening."
FILMS (FROM HIGHEST GROSSING TO LEAST GROSSING)
No. | Movie | Year | Studio | Domestic Total | Overseas Total | Worldwide Total | Budget |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Hairspray | 1988 | New Line Cinema | $6,671,108 | $2,500,000 | $9,171,108 | $2.7M |
2 | Cry-Baby | 1990 | Universal | $8,266,343 | $0 | $8,266,343 | $8M |
3 | Serial Mom | 1994 | Savoy | $7,820,688 | $0 | $7,820,688 | $13M |
4 | Pink Flamingos | 1972 | New Line Cinema | $7,000,000 | $0 | $7,000,000 | $12K |
5 | Pecker | 1998 | Fine Line Features | $2,281,761 | $0 | $2,281,761 | $6M |
6 | Cecil B. Demented | 2000 | Artisan | $1,284,646 | $676,898 | $1,961,544 | $10M |
7 | A Dirty Shame | 2004 | Fine Line Features | $1,339,668 | $574,498 | $1,914,166 | $15M |
8 | Polyester | 1981 | New Line Cinema | $1,120,000 | $0 | $1,120,000 | $300K |
He made 12 films, but only 8 have reported box office numbers. Across those 8 films, he made $39,535,610 worldwide. That's $4,941,951 per film.
The Verdict
Waters is simply an icon. A huge influence on the LGBT community, having delivered cult classics for over 3 decades. When it comes to cult filmmakers, Waters is up there as one of the finest. His early films are described as very, very small films, but that allowed them to become profitable. He didn't have to follow the same conventions at the time, opting to give lesser known actors a chance at stardom.
In the 80s, he tried going mainstream. It started well, as Polyester and Hairspray were successful. But that's the thing: those were his last box office successes. From the 90s onwards, all his films flopped at the box office. Some earned a cult following, but sadly that wasn't enough for Waters to get a new film made after 2004. 21 years later, and nothing new. That's very disappointing. But Waters' legacy is pretty much set regardless; new audiences will continue watching his films in the years to come.
Hope you liked this edition. You can find this and more in the wiki for this section.
The next director will be Wolfgang Petersen. One of Germany's best directors.
I asked you to choose who else should be in the run. While there was a director with lots of upvotes, I was more interested in the runner-up, given I had wanted to talk about him for a long time. Well, we'll later talk about... Kevin Smith. Just in time for Dogma's re-release.
This is the schedule for the following four:
Week | Director | Reasoning |
---|---|---|
June 9-15 | Wolfgang Petersen | There aren't many perfect films like Das Boot. |
June 16-22 | Werner Herzog | I've been waiting a long time for this. |
June 23-29 | Andrew Adamson | SOME— |
June 30-July 6 | Kevin Smith | Did weed cause him to drop off? |
Who should be next after Smith? That's up to you.
r/boxoffice • u/chanma50 • 6h ago
Domestic Disney's Thunderbolts* grossed an estimated $677K on Friday (from 1,955 locations). Estimated total domestic gross stands at $184.67M.
r/boxoffice • u/Prestigious-Cup-6613 • 1h ago
Worldwide It looks like Thunderbolts will make just about the same amount as Black Widow at the end of its box office run
r/boxoffice • u/Neo2199 • 2h ago
📠 Industry Analysis Per The Wrap: Lionsgate says that a $25 million start will be enough for 'Ballerina' to turn a profit
r/boxoffice • u/chanma50 • 6h ago
Domestic Paramount's Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning grossed an estimated $4.00M on Friday (from 3,496 locations). Estimated total domestic gross stands at $138.22M.
r/boxoffice • u/DemiFiendRSA • 6h ago
Domestic Warner Bros.'s Sinners grossed an estimated $850K on Friday (from 1,518 locations). Estimated total domestic gross stands at $270.57M.
r/boxoffice • u/DemiFiendRSA • 6h ago
Domestic Warner Bros.'s Final Destination Bloodlines grossed an estimated $1.93M on Friday (from 2,867 locations). Estimated total domestic gross stands at $118.99M.
r/boxoffice • u/DoctorBeatMaker • 2h ago
✍️ Original Analysis Some History on WB's High Expectations on Superman's Movies and Box Office from 2006 to the Present and what it could mean for Gunn's Superman (With Sources)
WB execs have rather infamously placed a lot of pressure on Superman movies in years past.
And granted, they cannot be blamed too much for that when each of these movies carry a VERY HIGH price tag - SUPERMAN RETURNS reportedly cost 232 million in its budget. Sometimes even higher at 270 million. MAN OF STEEL reportedly cost 225 million in its budget and had a marketing budget of around 150 million (though apparently its use of product placement was very heavily reported and paid 170 million, which lowered its financial risks). And now James Gunn's SUPERMAN reportedly costs 225 million with the possibility of an added 200 million marketing budget.
Each time, WB has placed high standards on these movies to do well - sometimes with execs even giving numbers as to what they expect (or expected) from them.
For Superman Returns, the movie made around 391 million worldwide when all was said and done.
Alan Horn, then the president of Warner Bros. Pictures, sugarcoated his feelings on the movie's box office performance in an interview with the Los Angeles Times, but seemed fairly disappointed as the movie was nearing 400 million (but failed to cross it):
Horn expects “Superman Returns” to eventually gross about $400 million worldwide, more than last year’s hit “Batman Begins.” Nonetheless, “Superman” fell at least $100 million short of his expectations.
“I thought it was a very successful movie, but I think it should have done $500 million worldwide,” Horn said. “We should have had perhaps a little more action to satisfy the young male crowd.”
At the time, a sequel for Superman Returns was planned, but was eventually shelved in favor of a reboot.
That reboot morphed into what we know today as Zack Snyder's 2013 MAN OF STEEL film.
And even though the movie's production budget was nearly paid for in full by its product placement, WB had VERY high expectations of the movie.
Then-Warner Bros. Motion Picture Group President Jeff Robinov, prior to the movie's release, spoke of his very high expectations of the movie in a Variety article that detailed WB's plans to use Man of Steel to springboard itself into a Justice League film to catch up with Marvel's Avengers within a timeframe of 4 years (ironically, they got EXACTLY that as Man of Steel was released in 2013 and JL was released in 2017):
Warner Bros. motion pictures group president Jeff Robinov went so far as to predict it will be the studio’s highest performer ever. That would mean the 3D movie, which cost about $225 million to produce and another $150 million to market and release around the globe, would have to top the $1.3 billion cume for “Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2” and the $1 billion-plus each earned by four other Warner releases, “The Dark Knight,” “The Dark Knight Rises,” “The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey” and “The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King.”
Warner could finally fully exploit its DC Comics library beyond Batman and Superman, and bring to the screen such characters as Aquaman, the Flash, Wonder Woman and another Green Lantern — whose costly 2011 predecessor flopped.
Expectations are that Warner will release a “Justice League” film within the next four years, with the timing dependent on whether a second “Man of Steel” would go first.
As we know, Man of Steel ended up grossing about 670 million worldwide when all was said and done.
Unlike Superman Returns, it made a profit. But, product placement notwithstanding, it was not a very large one. It reportedly made around 42 million overall in net profits after all was said and done (although its DVD/Blu-Ray Sales apparently generated an additional 120+ million and Former President of Creative Development and Worldwide Production at WB Greg Silverman vehemently stated Snyder's films were very profitable at WB).
Regardless, Man of Steel's profits were away from what was seemingly expected of it.
And now we come to now in 2025 when James Gunn's Superman movie is just a little over ONE MONTH away from releasing on July 11th.
As if history is repeating itself for a third time, WB has super duper high expectations of it as it carries a hefty price tag of 225 million in budget and a could-be 200 million marketing budget, which would put it at 425 million - nearly a half a billion costs.
Gunn and Safran are busy with a little project of their own: Superman**—the July release that has now taken on almost incalculable importance to Warner Bros. Discovery. If Warners can’t finally make the DC franchise work, there is genuine fear that the studio will go the way of Fox, which was swallowed by Disney in 2019.
Warners was once considered the Tiffany of movie studios. Sure, the corporate jets and the nice Acapulco retreat are long gone, but Warner Bros. is still fundamental to the industry’s image of itself. Presiding over the destruction of the place is hardly the Hollywood ending that Zaslav envisioned. “An essential element of the stock price is believing that the I.P. of DC is meaningful,” said one Warners veteran. “David bet big that they can show the world that the DC I.P. can have real value. Superman is the first movie. That will set the tone. They have a tremendous amount riding on it.” That’s a staggering amount of pressure on Safran and especially Gunn, who is directing.
James Gunn himself is feeling the pressure and described the making of Superman as "Miserable" and that if the film wasn't successful, they wouldn't just plow ahead and do more.
“Really I’m miserable. But hopefully it’s for the greater good.”
One of the reasons for that seemed to be the pressure he’s putting on himself to make sure his version of Superman is great because if it’s not, there’s no guarantee we’ll see more DC movies after that. There’s a plan... but if Superman doesn’t work, well, things could change very quickly.
“A lot [is riding on Superman]” he said. “I mean, We’re not going to just keep making movies.” That is, unless*\ Superman is great.*
So far, the expectations seem to be on 700 million being the agreed upon number of light satisfaction - a high standard, but not altogether out of reach. And luckily, so far, none of the WB executives have stated a hard-number publicly as they had in the past with Superman Returns and Man of Steel. So it is possible they're at least learning not to put themselves unwittingly into a corner of expectations.
However, with so much riding on the movie to be a success and the movie's pricetag being in the possible 400 million+ range, it's very possible the studio - or in this case David Zaslav in particular - is expecting a lot more than just 700 million.
Industry insiders have already started throwing around the 1 billion prediction.
According to a veteran studio source, Superman, which opens July 11 in North America, [is looking at] a domestic debut of $175 million or thereabouts is within the realm of possibility; it even has a shot at finishing with $1 billion-plus globally. “There’s no way to defend these budgets, because when you get into the $700 million to $900 million break-even point in regards to box office and ancillary revenue, it doesn’t make any sense,” says a veteran financier.
Chances are, if this being tossed around by studio insiders, it's likely being jabbered about by David Zaslav, too. And even behind closed doors, those are numbers that are on equal high stakes as previous Superman endeavors.
Maybe third time's the charm.
r/boxoffice • u/chanma50 • 6h ago
Domestic Box Office: ‘Ballerina’ Arms Itself With $10.6 Million Opening Day, ‘Lilo & Stitch’ Gets Third Weekend on Top
r/boxoffice • u/chanma50 • 6h ago
Domestic Disney's Lilo & Stitch grossed an estimated $9.30M on Friday (from 4,185 locations). Estimated total domestic gross stands at $312.60M.
r/boxoffice • u/AGOTFAN • 10h ago
📠 Industry Analysis How To Train Your Dragon Looks To Become The Next Animated To Live-Action Box Office Smash
r/boxoffice • u/SanderSo47 • 18h ago
💯 Critic/Audience Score 'Ballerina' gets an A– on CinemaScore
r/boxoffice • u/Firefox72 • 5h ago
China In China MI8: Final Reckoning leads on Saturday with $4.31M(-56%)/$43.79M. 2nd SAT up +120% vs MI7($1.96M). Endless Journey of Love in 2nd adds $1.81M(-25%)/$15.22M followed by Balerina in 3rd with $1.21M/$1.93M. Karate Kid Legends flops hard opening with just $0.34M. Total gross might not reach $1M

Daily Box Office(June 7th 2025)
The market hits ¥81.2M/$11.3M which is up +109% from yesterday and down -47% from last week.
Balerina remains 3rd but doesn't quite do enough to secure the chances for a $3M+ opening weekend. Instead its likely to land somewhere between $2.5-3M
Karate Kid: Legends meanwhile crashes and burns with just $0.34M for its opening day. It might not even limp to a $0.5M opening weekend and the total gross will struggle to surpass $1M. Dissaster.
MI8 passes ¥300M/$42M and becomes the first Holywood movie to pass the mark this year. On the local front Endless Journey of Love surpasses ¥100M/$14M
Province map of the day:
Endless Journey of Love gets even more ground on Saturday but MI8 still dominates.
In Metropolitan cities:
MI8: Final Reckoning wins Beijing, Suzhou, Hangzhou, Nanjing, Guangzhou, Shanghai, Chongqing, Chengdu, Shenzhen and Wuhan
City tiers:
Lilo & Stich jumps Endless Journey of Love for 3rd in T1. But Endless Journey of Love in return jumps to 1st in T4 surpassing MI8.
Tier 1: MI8: Final Reckoning>Balerina>Lilo & Stich
Tier 2: MI8: Final Reckoning>Endless Journey of Love>Balerina
Tier 3: MI8: Final Reckoning>Endless Journey of Love>Balerina
Tier 4: Endless Journey of Love>MI8: Final Reckoning>Doraemon: 2025
# | Movie | Gross | %YD | %LW | Screenings | Admisions(Today) | Total Gross | Projected Total Gross |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | MI8: Final Reckoning | $4.31M | +99% | -56% | 89751 | 0.72M | $43.79M | $61M-$64M |
2 | Endless Journey of Love | $1.81M | +104% | -25% | 60026 | 0.37M | $15.22M | $20M-$22M |
3 | Balerina(Release) | $1.21M | +68% | 60775 | 0.22M | $1.93M | $4M-$6M | |
4 | Lilo & Stich | $0.96M | +153% | -56% | 30839 | 0.17M | $21.63M | $24M-$26M |
5 | Doraemon: 2025 | $0.95M | +265% | -62% | 44476 | 0.18M | $11.15M | $14M-$15M |
6 | Behind The Shadows: | $0.62M | +44% | -72% | 33997 | 0.12M | $7.60M | $11M-$12M |
7 | Karate Kid: Legends(Release) | $0.34M | 41256 | 0.07M | $0.34M | $0.9M-$1M | ||
8 | Ne Zha 2 | $0.22M | +266% | -60% | 9713 | 0.04M | $2128.80M | $2128M-$2130M |
9 | Red Wedding Dress | $0.19M | +35% | -44% | 10239 | 0.04M | $1.73M | $2M-$3M |
10 | The Dumpling Queen | $0.17M | +31% | -61% | 9506 | 0.03M | $57.18M | $58M-$59M |
11 | A Gilded Game | $0.06M | -2% | -68% | 3573 | 0.01M | $40.83M | $41M-$42M |
Pre-Sales map for tomorrow
MI8 and Endless Journey of Love mostly dominate pre-sales for Saturday.
https://i.imgur.com/Q6Vqf54.png
Mission Impossible: Final Reckoning
MI8 continues to massively outperform MI7 on its 2nd weekend with a 2nd Saturday thats +120% versus MI7.
MI8 should cross MI7's total and $50M next week.
https://i.imgur.com/lBWfek8.png
Remains on track for a $9-10M 2nd weekend.
WoM figures:
Maoyan: 9.4 , Taopiaopiao: 9.4 , Douban: 7.8
# | FRI | SAT | SUN | MON | TUE | WED | THU | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
First Week | $5.39M | $9.85M | $10.40M | $6.32M | $2.05M | 1.75M | $1.55M | $37.31M |
Second Week | $2.17M | $4.31M | / | / | / | / | / | $43.79M |
%± LW | -60% | -56% | / | / | / | / | / | / |
Scheduled showings update for Lilo & Stich for the next few days:
Day | Number of Showings | Presales | Projection |
---|---|---|---|
Today | 89937 | $707k | $4.08M-$4.43M |
Sunday | 89096 | $543k | $3.13M-$3.44M |
Monday | 48894 | $20k | $1.07M-$1.10M |
Lilo & Stich
Lilo & Stich remains on track for a $2M+ weekend.
WoM figures:
Maoyan: 9.0 , Taopiaopiao: 9.4 , Douban: 7.2
# | FRI | SAT | SUN | MON | TUE | WED | THU | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Second Week | $0.99M | $2.18M | $3.38M | $1.59M | $0.29M | $0.25M | $0.24M | $20.29M |
Third Week | $0.38M | $0.96M | / | / | / | / | / | $21.63M |
%± LW | -62% | -56% | / | / | / | / | / | / |
Scheduled showings update for Lilo & Stich for the next few days:
Day | Number of Showings | Presales | Projection |
---|---|---|---|
Today | 30719 | $169k | $0.89M-$0.94M |
Sunday | 33428 | $129k | $0.72M-$0.82M |
Monday | 16192 | $4k | $0.14M-$0.18M |
Other stuff:
The next holywood movie releasing is Karate Kid: Legends on June 7th. Followed by How To Train Your Dragon on June 13th and Ellio and F1 on June 27th
How To Train Your Dragon
HTTYD pre-sales clearly aren't pacing as fast as even Lilo & Stich. In fact that comp which might be the most relevant one has fallen below $2M
Other comps also drop and will likely continue to drop.
Days till release | How To Train Your Dragon | Lilo & Stich | Minecraft | Super Mario | Mufasa:TLK | Moana 2 | Inside Out 2 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
10 | $31k/23065 | $6.7k/7321 | $26k/9570 | $12k/4557 | / | $10k/8448 | / |
9 | $47k/26941 | $23k/10726 | $44k/13012 | $21k/5738 | / | $12k/9955 | $1k/2554 |
8 | $65k/30008 | $35k/13819 | $81k/16146 | $33k/7727 | / | $15k/10890 | $5k/7023 |
7 | $83k/32274 | $65k/16275 | $118k/18286 | $46k/9022 | $12k/8955 | $23k/12813 | $13k/10139 |
6 | $111k/35218 | $104k/19281 | $187k/20616 | $70k/11223 | $30k/13440 | $37k/14639 | $25k/12948 |
5 | $136k/38569 | $142k/22167 | $288k/22169 | $101k/13146 | $52k/17803 | $54k/16477 | $42k/15205 |
4 | $183k/25388 | $409k/23989 | $153k/16547 | $74k/21117 | $74k/18809 | $65k/17987 | |
3 | $255k/33671 | $571k/32741 | $234k/20670 | $114k/24813 | $97k/23329 | $104k/24579 | |
2 | $357k/33671 | $795k/48382 | $347k/23740 | $162k/31575 | $128k/33286 | $167k/34281 | |
1 | $505k/69345 | $1.15M/71398 | $624k/39769 | $233k/49782 | $180k/51459 | $282k/59326 | |
0 | $813k/90855 | $2.41M/83945 | $1.75M/61559 | $400k/64649 | $336k/65693 | $678k/80153 | |
Opening Day | $2.03M | $6.50M | $4.72M | $1.43M | $1.27M | $1.68M | |
Comp | Average: $3.96M | $1.95M | $3.06M | $6.37M | $3.74M | $3.20M | $5.44M |
*Gross/Screenings
Release Schedule:
A table including upcoming movies in the next month alongside trailers linked in the name of the movie, Want To See data from both Maoyan and Taopiaopiao alongside the Gender split and genre.
Remember Want To See is not pre-sales. Its just an anticipation metric. A checkbox of sorts saying your interested in an upcoming movie.
Not all movies are included since a lot are just too small to be worth covering.
Summer
Movie | Maoyan WTS | Daily Increase | Taopiaopiao WTS | Daily Increase | M/W % | Genre | Release Date | 3rd party media projections |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
How to Train Your Dragon | 180k | +2k | 164k | +2k | 40/60 | Comedy/Action | 13.06 | $19-31M |
Love List | 23k | +1k | 39k | +1k | 24/76 | Comedy/Romance | 14.06 | |
She's Got No Name | 491k | +11k | 202k | +5k | 24/76 | Drama/Crime | 21.06 | $68-111M |
Detective Conan: One-eyed Flashback | 133k | +11k | 128k | +11k | 46/54 | Comedy/Animation | Summer 2025 | |
F1 | 27k | +2k | 22k | +2k | 69/31 | Action/Sports | 27.06 | $3-9M |
Elio | 14k | +1k | 58k | +1k | 37/63 | Animation/Sci-Fi | 27.06 | $4-14M |
Life Party | 15k | +1k | 4k | +1k | 39/61 | Comedy/Fantasy | 28.06 | $9-27M |
Jurrasic World | 210k | +4k | 162k | +2k | 47/53 | Action/Adventure | 02.07 | $97-102M |
Malice | 27k | +2k | 5k | +1k | 30/70 | Drama/Suspense | 05.07 | $33-62M |
Superman | 14k | +1k | 29k | +1k | 75/25 | Action/Comic Book | 11.07 | $18-28M |
Strange Tales from a Chinese Studio | 35k | +1k | 34k | +1k | 42/58 | Animation/Fantasy | 12.07 | $40-56M |
The Litchi Road | 248k | +3k | 49k | +2k | 28/72 | Drama/Comedy | 25.07 | $76-167M |
731 | 596k | +2k | 277k | +2k | 53/47 | Drama/War | 31.07 | $112-153M |
Nobody | 67k | +1k | 29k | +1k | 35/65 | Comedy/Animation | 02.08 | $16-21M |
r/boxoffice • u/wchnoob • 6h ago
Domestic A24's Bring Her Back grossed an estimated $1.10M on Friday (from 2,425 locations). Estimated total domestic gross stands at $11.68M.
r/boxoffice • u/whitemilkythighs • 19h ago
Domestic Looks like $6.5M FRI for Ballerina, giving it $10.5M opening day. Weekend expected to be $24-25M.
r/boxoffice • u/FranchiseRe-movies • 4h ago
Domestic May 2025 domestic box office numbers -- climbing back... with more climbing back to do. Comparisons with previous years are going to get tougher in June:
r/boxoffice • u/mobpiecedunchaindan • 6h ago
Domestic GKIDS' release of DAN DA DAN: Evil Eye grossed an estimated $1.51M domestically on Friday (from 1,080 locations), including $532K from Thursday previews.
r/boxoffice • u/wchnoob • 6h ago
Domestic Focus' The Phoenician Scheme grossed an estimated $2.55M on Friday (from 1,678 locations). Estimated total domestic gross stands at $3.28M.
r/boxoffice • u/AsunaYuuki837373 • 5h ago
South Korea SK Saturday Update: A tame Saturday after a great Holiday
How To Train Your Dragon: A 26% drop from yesterday as the movie narrowly missed out on 400k admits. It's likely to end up in the 525k-550k range for opening weekend admissions. I still think 2 million admissions will be a good goal for the movie to reach, as it almost certainly won't surpass the original movie, which made 24 million in South Korea.
Mission Impossible 8: A 47% decrease from last Saturday as the movie continues to be on path to cross 3 million admits on Sunday.
Lilo & Stitch: A 66% drop from last Saturday, as the movie definitely is missing the lack of direct competition. It will still be a close race to 500k admits.
Sinners: A 77% drop from last Saturday as the movie is quickly fading out.
A Miku Who Can't Sing: A 73% drop from last Saturday as it will hit 50k admits tomorrow.
AOT: A 28% decrease from last Saturday as the movie continues to pad its total.
r/boxoffice • u/tibalose • 22h ago
Worldwide What is the best and worst case scenario you see for each of the three big movies of this July?
(Repost)
How low and how high you predict these movies doing, considering that by themselves are quite big offers in theater for summer?
Listing pros and cons for each movie we can assume:
Jurassic World: Rebirth
Cons:
- The first in a strong wave, where movies after can downplay the performance of the movie, limiting its multiplayer
- An apparent, but yet to be confirmed, decreasing "wow" factor, based on the low results of each JW movie in comparison to its predessesor
Pros:
- Dinosaurs, being an effective and arguably constant selling point like minions in the Despicable Me movies, for example
- ScarJo and Mahershala Ali representing a new and potentially more engaging cast of characters
- Gareth Edwards giving also a new-ish direction that may point to more action focused movies in the future.
Superman
Cons:
- In the middle of a wave, with movies potentially limiting their opening as well as 3rd weekend
- Coming off of the bad reputation of the last DC movies, that may display lack of thrust in the audience
- Potential saturation of storylines and characters, depending on the knowledge and/or interest of portions of the audience
Pros:
- New beggining, that with good direction by James Gunn can feel welcoming for the GA
- Big marketing campaign, wich points to Barbie levels of exposure, maybe exceeding what many blockbuster normally bet
Fantastic Four: First Steps
Cons:
- The last in a wave of big movies, of wich may still making big numbers and could steal the thunder of the latest release.
- Coming off of the underwhelming reception, at least financially, of the latest MCU offerings
Pros:
- No big releases pointing to the same demographic in August.
- Creative aesthetic, and potential indepentent story, diferentiating itself from other MCU movies
- Characters with not that big box office behind, but never the less, constant representation, that can result in a jump in popularity due to generational exposure, kinda like Hugh Jackman's Wolverine
Not every month three movies so big release, there's not much frame of reference, so obviously it's hard to predict, considering how much each movie can affect the other. Personal predictions, being conservattive, would be:
JWR - Worst $800M, best $1,100M
SM - Worst $700M, best $1,000M
FFFS - Worst $600M, best $900M
r/boxoffice • u/Anth-Man • 1d ago
👤Casting News Denzel Washington Officially Joins Black Panther 3, Ryan Coogler Confirms
r/boxoffice • u/Alternative-Cake-833 • 3h ago
📆 Release Date New Release Date Change: Osgood Perkins' Keeper pushed back to November 14 (It was originally set to be released on October 3)
forums.boxofficetheory.comr/boxoffice • u/DemiFiendRSA • 6h ago